In the last several days, Russia has given the world a demonstration of political confidence and military prowess. In defeating Georgia, a U.S. ally, and in bringing the two pro-Russian enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia firmly into its orbit, it is laying claim to be the dominant power in both the Caucasus and the Black Sea region.

Moscow seems determined to restore its influence, if not yet its actual hegemony, over what the Russians call the "near abroad." Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, largely inhabited by ethnic Russians, could be its next target.

In resorting to force to defend what it considers its legitimate security interests, Russia is challenging America's international supremacy. It has clearly been emboldened by the fact that, under President George W. Bush, the United States has also behaved as if it could do as it pleased without regard to the wishes or interests or others, or to the rules governing international relations.

Washington cannot credibly accuse Russia of attacking a sovereign state, since the United States itself invaded and destroyed Iraq, killing tens of thousands of Iraqis, on fraudulent evidence and without the authorization of the United Nations -- as Moscow never fails to point out. Moreover, Washington is unable to respond robustly to Russia's military assault on Georgia because America's own armed services are tied down in two catastrophic and unwinnable wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Georgian crisis thus serves to illuminate the loss of political, military, and moral authority the United States has suffered under the Bush presidency.

U.S.-Russian relations are now likely to experience a period of acute turbulence, which is bound to have repercussions in many parts of the world, not least in the Middle East. The United States will not, for example, be able to count on Russian support in the campaign of intimidation that it has been waging -- in close coordination with its Israeli ally -- against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

To that extent, therefore, the Georgian crisis is likely to benefit Iran. It will reduce still further the already diminishing possibility of a U.S./Israeli military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. It will also encourage Iran's regional allies, Syria and Hezbollah, who have already scored considerable successes against their opponents in Lebanon and the wider region.

Israel itself must now watch its step with Moscow. It has incurred Russian displeasure by helping train the Georgian army and by supplying it with military equipment, including drones. One of these pilotless aircraft was shot down by the Russians.

In retrospect, Washington was unnecessarily provocative in extending NATO into Russia's backyard -- most recently in sponsoring Georgia and Ukraine for NATO membership -- and in planning to install anti-missile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Last Thursday -- in what looked like a direct response to the Georgian crisis -- the United States and Poland reached a deal to station U.S. anti-missile interceptors on Polish soil. Moscow inevitably saw this move as a direct threat to Russian security. Commenting on the U.S.-Polish deal, a senior Russian defense official declared that such an action "cannot go unpunished."

The United States had also angered Moscow by lending its backing to pipelines bypassing Russia as they carry oil and gas from Central Asia and the Caucasus to the Mediterranean -- such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, which came into service in May 2005. Such pipelines are a challenge to Russia's ambition to be Europe's main energy supplier.

One clear result of the crisis is that Georgian and Ukrainian hopes of joining the North Atlantic Alliance are doomed -- at least for the foreseeable future. Georgia's army has been routed and much of its military equipment destroyed. It has been amputated of its two separatist republics, now firmly in the hands of Russian troops in the guise of 'peacekeepers.'

Georgia's pro-American President Mikhail Saakashvili may himself not survive long in his post. He grossly miscalculated in believing that, with U.S. protection, he could send his army into South Ossetia to crush the separatists, and that Russia would let him get away with it. For him and his battered country, Russia's muscular response has been a rude awakening.

Saakashvili's intemperate language at a joint press conference with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice -- when he called the Russians "barbarians" and "cold-blooded killers" -- will probably hasten his downfall. From Moscow's point of view, Georgia is ripe for regime-change.

The world is not back to the icy confrontation of the Cold War, but the last couple of weeks have seen a shift in the international balance of power. Flush with revenues from oil and gas, sitting on vast foreign exchange reserves, its armed services and its self-confidence rebuilt by Vladimir Putin over the past eight years, Russia is now a major player in a highly competitive multi-polar world.

Many an international relationship will need to be adjusted to match the new reality.

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Patrick Seale is a leading British writer on the Middle East, and the author of "The Struggle for Syria"; also, "Assad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East"; and "Abu Nidal: A Gun for Hire".