How will historians judge the legacy of U.S. President George W. Bush? And, as he approaches the end of his second term, is it possible for him to influence or redefine this legacy?

The answer to the first question is not a favorable one.

During his tenure, the Iraq war was poorly conceived and implemented. It is now a quagmire with no end in sight. With over half a trillion dollars and counting, this war is now impacting essential programs here at home.

Hurricane Katrina also proved that Washington was incapable of responding efficiently to natural disasters on the home front.

And then there is the economy. The Majority of economists would agree that the country is in a recession and possibly a severe one. More Americans are finding themselves jobless every week.

The high cost of energy is compounding matters and polls are giving the administration a very low performance rating – confirming that the nation is going in the wrong direction.

The Bush administration has been either incompetent or unlucky or both.

What could overshadow the Iraq War, Katrina, and a weak economy to provide a new defining moment? The answer is Iran.

Bush could reshape his legacy in the few remaining months of his administration by attacking Iran's nuclear installations. If this is done successfully, without escalating the conflict in the Middle East at large, history will define his administration as the one that denied, or slowed substantially, Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

It would be framed as good against evil with good prevailing in a Hollywood-style production. If Bush decides to pursue such a plan, the ideal time would be after the Nov. 4 presidential election.

Why not before? If the plan fails or backfires, John McCain along with many hopeful Republican candidates could be political casualties.

Yet, such a decision may prove to be just as erroneous as the Iraq fiasco. The ramification of such an attack is likely to have a spillover affect on the entire Middle East, further destabilizing the region. If Iran is attacked, the following is likely to happen:

1. The proud Iranian people will rally around their leadership. An attack, which will be undoubtedly viewed as an insult, will galvanize the population and embolden the radical Islamic leadership – extending the life span of the autocratic mullahs.

Furthermore, polls conducted in Iran have been very favorable toward the United States. This positive feeling is likely to vanish and be transformed into hostility with long-term negative consequences.

2. Iran will use its strong interest and presence in Iraq to ensure that the relative mirage of tranquility is over. Numerous heavily armed militias that take their orders from Iran will flare up creating destabilizing conflicts across Iraq. This will further endanger the American men and women serving there. Iraq will re-emerge as a much more dangerous nation.

3. Iran is likely to revenge the attack by restricting the flow of oil in the Straits of Hormuz. It could also target the nearby U.S.-friendly Gulf nations, attacking their energy installations. The already high price of oil is likely to soar, further strangling global economies including that of the United States.

4. Lebanon's Hezbollah is fated to react against an attack on Iran. For Hezbollah, Tehran is as sacred as the Vatican is to Catholics. They feel a much closer affinity and sense of loyalty to the Iranian leadership than to the central Lebanese government in Beirut. Their religious bond with Iran is far stronger than their national identity as Lebanese. Hezbollah will view a U.S. attack as one coordinated with Israel and will likely retaliate by attacking Israel and igniting a repeat of the 2006 Israel- Hezbollah war.

Attacking Iran may camouflage the legacy of the Bush administration. Yet, redefining the president's legacy using a conflict with Iran may prove to be an even more dangerous path than that of Iraq.

Will there be a dark day in November? Let's hope not.

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Raja Kamal is associate dean at the Harris School for Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago.