Time is not on the side of peacemakers in the Middle East. Even the relentless optimists are giving up. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has become increasingly overshadowed and orchestrated on both sides by extreme and uncompromising religious groups that view their political mandate as holy and sacred. Religion is now front and center. This is hindering any peaceful resolution in the short run and will prove increasingly prohibitive to a political settlement in the long run. More than ever, peace is an unattainable mirage.
During the last 25 years, various competing stakeholders in the region have increasingly embraced religion as the dominant paradigm in determining domestic policies. In many Arab nations, the fundamentalist revival has been significant and disconcerting. During the period, Hezbollah has emerged in Lebanon as a potent force, Iraq has transformed from one of the most secular nations in the Middle East to a theocratic-militant nation, and Hamas is now surging in Palestine and diluting the authority of President Mahmoud Abbas.
Much of the strength of fundamentalism is derived from the fundamentalists' increasing share of the population. This demographic shift is occurring not only in the Muslim world, but also in Israel.
Israel has been slowly evolving from a culturally Jewish democracy into a religiously dominated one. As it celebrates its 60th birthday, Israel's Haredi ultra-Orthodox religious community is growing at a rate so high that it is redefining the political landscape. According to Israeli government statistics, Haredi Jews average 7.6 children per woman, almost three times the rate of the population as a whole. Out of 120 members of the Israeli Knesset, there are now 20 (all male) ultra-Orthodox members-up from five just a couple of decades ago. Their number is projected to grow as their constituents multiply. In a fractured political landscape typical of Israel, this would make it possible for organized religious parties to exert significant power over the government.
At the same time, many highly educated and secular Israelis are choosing to emigrate from Israel – seeking a more tranquil life absent from the never-ending conflicts. It is estimated that about half a million Israelis are now residing in the United States. Among them are some of Israel's best scholars.
Twenty-five percent of Israel's leading scholars reside in the United States. Some 40,000 Israelis reside in Silicon Valley alone. These emigrants are indirectly accelerating the demographic changes in Israel, which benefit the religious right.
Some argue that the attraction to ultra-Orthodoxy is a rejection of the Western liberal tradition. Religious observance requires serious social and economic sacrifices. Many men attend yeshiva (Orthodox Jewish school of higher instruction) until the age of 40. This represents many years in which these Talmudic scholars do not accumulate valuable human capital applicable to the secular market place. As their numbers continue to grow, there may be a strain on the Israeli economy. How will those highly observant religious scholars successfully assimilate into the mainstream economy? With many of Israel's best minds leaving their homeland, will Israel be able to continue to integrate into an increasingly global economy?
As the demographics continue to change, Israeli policymakers must grapple with these new realities.
The high birthrate of the ultra-Orthodox is also impacting the political decisions that have direct ramifications on the peace process with Palestinians. Most of the 200,000 settlers in the West Bank are extremely religious. They view their presence on the West Bank as a religious responsibility to a much higher authority.
Ironically, Israel's religious right and Hamas in Gaza feel that their enhanced numbers are a source of strength. Their numbers are swelling and resources are few. Absent from both groups is the notion of negotiation and compromise.
The prospect of an Iranian "bomb" is a dilemma with which the world must wrestle. Israel along with Sunni Arab regimes such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt are undoubtedly nervous. Yet, as dangerous as it may be, Iran's "bomb" may be more manageable than the demographic time bomb facing Israel and its immediate neighbors.
Time is running out. Demography is changing in Israel and all over the Middle East. Passionate believers are manifesting themselves as the local representatives of the "Almighty" on Earth. New breeds of God's warriors are marginalizing secular national leaders. History tells us that divine inspiration may not lead us down an auspicious path. The future is bleak.
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Raja Kamal is associate dean at the Harris School for Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago.

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