There have been more and more cases of arrests in Syria, making some people wonder: does the regime benefit from the state of anarchy in neighboring Iraq, the amplified uproar on the Iranian nuclear dossier and Hamas' ascent to power to tighten the grip on the opposition and the civil society?
The Syrian regime sounded to be focused on the security issue, which raises questions about the credibility of any change at the top while the same structures and organizations remain unchanged.
The late president Hafez Al Assad stayed in power for 30 years until he died in 2000. His severe rule had paved the way for the access to power of his son Bashar, whose legitimacy is still affected by the regime's failure to handle the economic and social challenges and the reformists' aspirations. Needless to say, like the majority of other Arab countries, Syria is facing serious economic, social and political problems, and at the same time it is witnessing a population boom.
Despite his promises and the fact that he belongs to the young generation educated in the West, familiar to freedom of thought and democracy, Bashar Al Assad has not introduced himself as the Gorbachev of Syria: he does not seem eager to launch the equivalent Syrian Perestroika or Glasnost, which might possibly lead him to being ousted from power.
Assad has actually pursued some political reforms, but many observers believe that he remains circumscribed by power elites who have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo.
A British-educated ophthalmologist who had held the rank of colonel in the Syrian army, Assad had no government position at the time of his father's death. However, he had become increasingly active in an anticorruption drive and in bringing the Internet to Syria.
Observers have described Assad's modernization program as akin to the Chinese model, with emphasis on economic reform while retaining one party rule.
Although he called for "steady, yet gradual steps" toward introducing economic changes and "removing bureaucratic obstacles to the flow of domestic and foreign investments", Syria's economy continues to suffer from a bloated and inefficient public sector, rigid central planning, and excessive administrative regulations.
Some Syrian observers say that Assad repressed the reform movement that he himself had helped to launch as soon as he noticed its results on the political order. The government reshuffle initiated by Assad shows that the authority center in Syria is still unstable, and subsequently the decision making in the country more obscure.
Some reports show that official powers of the country have remained in the hands of Alawite officials. As an illustration, they say that Assad's brother, Maher, appeared as the strong man in the Republican Army, whose main task is protecting the presidential palace and the capital.
Assad appointed Ghazi Kanaan, the former head of intelligence in Lebanon and a trusted man of his father, as interior minister in October 2004. Assad also had appointed his brother-in-law, Asef Shawkat - considered a hardliner - as head of the military intelligence, well before some reports saw him as one of the occult master minders of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri's assassination.
Another hardliner, Bahjat Suleiman, presided over the internal security branch of General Intelligence. Besides, Gen. Mohammed Mansour replaced Kanaan as the head of political security, and some reports pointed that his power was increasing.
As for Gen. Shalash, Assad's cousin, he is in charge of the president's protection. Brigadier Ali Habib replaced Hassan Turkmani as the Chief of Staff in May 2004; the latter replaced Mustafa Tlas as the minister of defense. Except for Turkmani -a Turkmen, as his name indicates - all other officials are Alawites.
The only Sunni official who was holding an important position was former vice-president Abdel Halim Khaddam - before he fled abroad and started accusing his old friends.
It can be concluded that the new hierarchical order of government positions in Syria has followed the same old method used by the late Hafez Al Assad. No substantial change has occurred in the institutional structures of the state.
Hichem Karoui is a writer and journalist living in Paris. Acknowledgement to Media Monitors Network (MMN)
Viewpoint: Syria's broken promises
TOOLBAR
To add a comment,
Please log in:
Don't have an account?
Register now to comment on stories and stay up to date on important events and issues in the Middle East with our newsletter.