Democracy is knocking on the Middle East's door, but no one appears to be noticing. With Turkey set to join the European Union in due course, and Cyprus already a member of the Brussels club, the Arab world should come to realize that it will be left behind by energetic, fast-moving economies if it continues to drag its heels on democratic reforms.
Political reforms and moves toward democratization bring economic reforms, which in turn attract investments and business and a more stable political environment.
Europe, with its democratic institutions, and with whom the Arab and Islamic worlds will soon share common borders, will find itself right at the Middle East's back door. Perhaps 2005 will be the year when the Arab world will begin asking the pertinent question, such as where it is heading - or rather, where it is not?
When compared to the Arab world, the once-Communist Eastern bloc has moved forward at warp speed. In just 10 short years, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have adopted democracy, respect of human rights, moved toward free-market economies, and adhered to multiple changes requested by the Copenhagen criteria.
In a decade, the eastern European countries went from Soviet-styled dictatorships to full-fledged constitutional democracies. Are they perfect? Far from it, but they are on their way to a more mature political system, one that includes participation of their citizenry. No one risks arrest in Prague, Warsaw or Budapest for criticizing the government.
Compared to Eastern Europe, what has the Arab World accomplished in the last decade? What noteworthy changes have occurred? What moves toward democracy have they adopted in the last 10 years? Which one of the 22 Arab League members can truly claim to have held fair elections? Is there one country that can speak of a parliamentary opposition that contributes positively to the democratic process? Is there one that can boast an independent press, free to criticize its government?
Regrettably, we would be hard-pressed to answer "yes" to those questions when it relates to any one Arab country. In the last 30 or so years, most have been governed by the same leaders, or by the children of those leaders. Free elections are non-existent, or at best organized in such a way that results are guaranteed to offer the ruling party a clear-cut victory: usually one hovering around 99 percent of the vote.
Parliaments, where they do exist, are typically rubber stamps for the governing authority, where a semblance of democracy is acted out in front of television cameras. Gehad Auda, an Egyptian political analyst, describes democracy in Hosni Mubarak's Egypt as a place where "democratic politics were to be conducted in parliament rather than on the streets."
This begs the following question: What is it about the Arab world that prevents it from progressing toward greater democratic reforms? Why is it that other countries, some less economically and socially developed, are able to transition to more open societies, while the Arab world stagnates politically?
An Egyptian journalist I was having dinner with in Ankara explained it this way: religion.
"It is important to remember that in the early days of Islam, religion and politics were one and the same. Those who governed after the Prophet ruled over both the government and the faith," said my colleague. "There was no separation of church and state then; it was one and the same.
"Arab leaders, at least some of them, still like to claim they are descendants of, or related to, the Prophet," said my Egyptian friend. "As such, they believe it gives them greater legitimacy to rule over their people, allowing them to remain in power without the need for elections."
I pointed out that Turkey - whose prime minister had just been informed a few hours earlier that talks would begin in 2005 to negotiate its entry into the European Union - was 99 percent Muslim. Turkey had taken incredible strides forward. I pointed out that Indonesia was the largest Muslim country in the world. That India is home to 150 million Muslims, (more than Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iraq combined). That Kosovo and Albania are overwhelmingly Muslim and are making reforms in the hope of one day joining the EU. That Bosnia is about 41 percent Muslim.
By the time the main course had been cleared and Turkish delights were served, it became clear that the Islamic world breaks down into two spheres of influence - one where democracy existed or was developing apace, and one where it was missing. What emerged was the following: democracy was not absent in the Islamic world, it was only absent in the Arab world. Conclusion: lack of democracy has nothing to do with religion.
Having said that, the Arab world will be going through two elections next January. The first will take place on January 9 in the Palestinian territories when citizens of the West Bank and Gaza will elect a new president following the death of Yasser Arafat.
The Palestinians will have the opportunity to demonstrate to the rest of the world that democracy can exist in the Middle East. That, however, hangs on two caveats: that the Islamist groups - Hamas and Islamic Jihad - accept the electoral process, and to use the old cliché, favor the ballot over the bullet.
The other caveat being, as Uri Dromi, director of international outreach at the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem point out, "Palestinians cannot develop their full democratic potential while Israel is in charge of vital aspects of their existence." Dromi states that "Israel cannot be a full democracy while it rules other people."
The other all-important election due to take place in the Arab world is the January 30 balloting in Iraq, if it goes ahead. Given the recent rise in violence, it would seem difficult to hold elections under such an environment. Instead of opting to participate in the political process, the "opposition" chose violence, bombings, kidnappings and horrid beheadings; and more recently, the assassination of election officials.
Chances are the elections will not take place, or if they do, they will be highly contested and possibly rejected by the Sunnis. And as a result another chance at giving democracy a whirl will have been lost. And chances are that by next year, regrettably, I may well write the same column, except by then Romania and Bulgaria - along with possibly Ukraine, Kosovo and Macedonia - will have joined the list of countries to push open democracy's door. Meanwhile, the door to democracy in the Middle East remains closed.
Claude Salhani is international editor at United Press International .
OPINION: Where is the Mideast's democracy?
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