Iran has been dancing a diplomatic tango over its nuclear negotiations - taking two steps forward for every one step back. The end result, diplomats and analysts believe, is that Iran seems to be gradually inching toward acquiring the potential to develop nuclear weapons.
In their negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Union three (EU-3) - France, Britain and Germany - the Iranians have been sending mixed signals. First they seem to indicate they will abide by international requests to curb their nuclear program, only to later renege on the deals, then to return once more to the negotiating table.
In accepting the proposals offered by the EU-3 to suspend enriching uranium - needed for the production of nuclear weapons - Iran avoids bringing the issue to the attention of the UN Security Council.
Recourse to the Security Council would raise the stakes, risking sanctions being imposed on Iran, or worse. Once all diplomatic avenues have been exhausted, the council could pave the way for international recourse to a military solution. Unlikely, but the threat exists, nevertheless.
For the moment, however, it appears that diplomacy has retained the upperhand and that a crisis has been averted. "We have reached a final agreement with the three European powers," Hussein Moussavian, secretary of the foreign department of Iran's Supreme Council for National Security, told Iranian state-run television on Sunday night.
The Iranian government has termed a draft resolution of the IAEA regarding its nuclear program as "appropriate". Government spokesman Abdollah Ramezanzadeh said the resolution does not satisfy all of Iran's demands, but it is acceptable given the circumstances.
However, will Iran, which so far has been playing a cat-and-mouse game with the EU-3 and the IAEA, hoping to buy itself some additional time, respect the agreements?
David Mack, vice-president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, and a former deputy assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, does not think so.
"I don't think the Iranians will respect any agreement the United States is not part of," Mack told United Press International. "They will run circles around us."
Mack, and others who follow Middle Eastern affairs, believe that as long as there is no joint European-US approach to address the issue of Iran's nuclear program, the Iranians will continue to play one off against the other. "The uncoordinated good cop, bad cop routine is not working," Mack said.
One reason this routine has not worked is because other than label Iran part of the "Axis of Evil," the Bush administration has not been very active in addressing the Iran issue.
When Secretary of State Colin Powell was seated next to Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharrazi at the Sharm El Sheikh conference on Iraq on November 22, instead of engaging his Iranian counterpart in useful dialogue, Powell reportedly chose to limit his discussions to "polite dinner conversation".
If true, that is both a sad fact and the loss of a golden opportunity at initiating diplomacy. While the United States and Iran have no formal relations, the Sharm El Sheikh dinner would have been a perfect occasion for the two top diplomats to begin an exchange of ideas.
"The Bush administration is on a collision course with Iran," Shibley Telhami, professor of political science at the University of Maryland and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told UPI. Telhami thinks that the current US approach on Iran will not work. He warns that the more pressure you place on Iran, the more you strengthen the theocratic regime in Tehran.
Iran believes its security will be better off with nuclear arms and will most likely not stop its program. "I have no doubt in my mind that Iran will continue to seek nuclear capability," said Telhami. All Iran needs to do is look at how easy it was for the United States to invade neighboring Iraq, and shudder at the thought.
Iran feels it needs nuclear weapons for its defense, and will pursue that goal unless offered what Mack calls "substantial quid pro quo". That means giving the Iranians concrete reasons to forgo their nuclear aspirations by letting them know they would be better off without them.
"There are smart people in Iran who think its better to be like Japan than like another North Korea," said Mack. Meaning that Iran could be offered incentives that would encourage the country to join the international fold, rather than turning it into a pariah state.
But for that to happen, for Iran to realize that the West is negotiating with a single voice, Mack, Telhami and others believe the United States and the Europeans must join hands. Before the United States can begin mending fences with Iran, Mack says, it should start mending them with Europe.
Claude Salhani is international editor at United Press International
Iran's nuclear quest
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