A newly-invigorated George W. Bush administration accuses Iran of making an atom bomb, which is a true story but also an old one. Iran's efforts to acquire such weapons are well-documented and have been known for years.
Just like Israel, which has acquired scores of nuclear arms, Iran wants the world to know something is afoot while continuing to deny this. It is openly saying it is enriching uranium, which could be used in the making of nuclear weapons.
Iranian military strategists have let it be known for some time that they feel a need to acquire nuclear weaponry potential as a defense primarily against Israel and the United States, not as an offensive weapon. This posture is plausible as the Iranian ruling establishment, while defiant at
times, is never reckless.
All of which raises the question: What are they thinking in the White House and the Pentagon? Maybe they think they will save the Gulf region by destroying it. Perhaps they do not know what they are doing.
One would imagine that those making the noises about Iran are fully aware that nothing will or can be done to stop it from pursuing the goal of being able to build a weapon of mass destruction (WMD).
Short of the use of direct force, an organized state with a fairly solid military infrastructure cannot be prevented from acquiring WMD if it decides to do so.
North Korea is a prominent example of this. Equally well-established is the fact that ever since World War II nations that acquired nuclear weapons - including Pakistan and India, which have gone to war several times - have never resorted to using them.
Even Israel, which possesses some 200 atomic weapons, did not use them in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war when it, albeit for a few days, faced a threat to its survival. Indeed, the only nuclear power that used its weapons was the United States, which dropped atomic bombs on Japan in 1945 to end World War II.
Furthermore, respected military strategists believe that joining the "nuclear club" confers a sense of gravity and responsibility upon its members. The concept of "mutually assured destruction", has kept WMD dormant for more than 50 years.
Indeed, after the end of the Cold War, a consensus among military and intelligence strategists has emerged that the real threat of WMD comes from rogue elements.
These can be disparate terrorist groups or corrupt scientists teaming up with mafia or governments to steal or smuggle.
Much of this is public knowledge and part of established intelligence doctrines, simply, facts of the post-Cold War world.
One has to wonder why the Bush administration is reviving the old play, "WMD rears their heads again", and why it is beating the war drums in the Gulf region for the second time in four years.
Could it be that the same president who gave us the Iraq war in his first term is preparing the Iran war in his second? This sounds crazy, especially since no exit from the Iraqi quagmire is visible for America.
Reason would suggest before taking on Iran with its 70 million people, the United States should finish its quarrel with Iraq's 25 million.
But even former presidential contender Sen. John Kerry, who said that Bush's invasion of Iraq was "the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time", failed to come up with a way of ending it or a promise to bring the troops home in another four years.
All this leads to the craziest conclusion of all: George W. Bush and his neoconservative crowd really do not know what they are doing. Before you say this is far-fetched, just think that we are where we are precisely for that very same reason.
Yes, they really did not know what they were doing the past four years and do not know now what they are doing. What you see is what you get: There is no plan, there is no strategy, no road maps. As simple as that. Fasten your seat belts.
Youssef M. Ibrahim is managing director of the Dubai-based Strategic Energy Investment Group. This essay first appeared in Gulf News
Iran's nukes - what's the problem?
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