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Sarkozy in Damascus: French President Treads in Bush Absence
By ANDREW D. BISHOP (Special to the Middle East Times)
Published: September 03, 2008
Despite Syrian cooperation with France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy (shown here), the United States is Syria's main reference point in the region's evolutions. Assad himself has said he is "betting on the next American president and his administration." (Newscom)
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French President Nicolas Sarkozy arrives in Damascus Wednesday on a long-awaited visit as Paris tries to fill the diplomatic vacuum created by Washington's policy of exclusion.

The two-day trip, which was announced after Syrian President Bashar Assad attended France's national day ceremonies last July represents yet another step in the ongoing reconciliation process between Paris and Damascus.

The two nations have historically been close, if only because France ruled over Lebanon and Syria in the aftermath of the break-up of the Ottoman Empire and until the end of World War II. More recently, Sarkozy's predecessor, President Jacques Chirac, visited Damascus twice during his presidency, in 1994 and 2002. But that was before relations between the two countries began to sour with the United Nations Security Council passing Resolution 1559 calling for the end of Syria's occupation of Lebanon in October 2004.

Relations further worsened after Syria was accused of masterminding the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 14, 2005. Hariri was a close friend of then-president Chirac, and so there was no hesitation on the part of the Elysee Palace in freezing diplomatic ties with Damascus.

Despite a brief period of overture in the early days of his presidency, Sarkozy followed with this line of isolation when he declared in January 2007 that Syria would have to be more helpful in securing a new government for Lebanon if it ever expected to be addressed again.

However, Claude Guéant, Sarkozy's confidante and chief of staff at the Elysee Palace, never ceased speaking to Damascus. Instead, he prepared for the new president's grandiose project of hosting a wide-ranging conference to inaugurate his Union for the Mediterranean and establish himself as a power broker in the Middle East.

That was done earlier this summer when nearly all Mediterranean heads of state -- including Assad and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert -- met in Paris to show their willingness to go along with Sarkozy's ambitions, despite their initial political flaws.

Owing to his recent signs of goodwill with regards to Syria's relations with Israel and with Lebanon, the Syrian president's invitation was extended to include officially attending France's July 14 celebrations.

That is when Sarkozy was invited to Damascus and when the two leaders began to put their full weight behind efforts to improve relations -- political and economic -- between their two countries.

Sarkozy is known to be an ambitious man, and his decision to engage with Syria at a time when the United States prefers to keep away from Damascus is telling.

There are at least two avenues that France can follow in its attempt to make the most out of Assad's desire to "come in from the cold" -- as Syrian political analyst Sami Moubayed recently put it.

The first, which Sarkozy has long-begun exploiting, is for France to play a major role in the reconciliation process between Syria and Lebanon.

A historic protector of Beirut's interests, France was supportive this past spring of the Qatari-led Doha agreement that allowed Lebanon's conflicting factions to avoid an all-out civil war and eventually agree to form a consensual government, ending months of political vacuum.

More recently, egged on by Sarkozy, on Aug. 13, Lebanon's new president Michel Suleiman and Assad agreed to establish diplomatic relations between their two countries by exchanging ambassadors, something Syria has refused to do, until now.

Sarkozy's support might have been somewhat helpful, however, France's role remained limited and arguably indecisive when compared to that of other actors. Therefore, Paris turned to another portfolio, that of Syria's current negotiations with Israel over the restitution of the Golan Heights and a possible peace deal.

For a while Sarkozy cherished the idea of potentially serving as a direct intermediary between Assad and Olmert. He was encouraged in this endeavor by the Syrian president who declared in an interview with the French daily Le Figaro, on July 8 that "France has to play a direct role in favor of peace in the Middle East."

As Alain Gresh, a Middle East expert who writes for Le Monde Diplomatique, told the Middle East Times: "France could play a role in bringing Israel to confirm the commitment made by Yitzhak Rabin in 1994: that the aim of the negotiations is Israel's withdrawal from all Syrian territory occupied since 1967."

In the end however, it has been Turkey and not France that has served as intermediary between Olmert and Assad.

Reports have indicated that Sarkozy will be joined on Thursday by Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani to discuss regional developments reaching as far as Israeli-Palestinian relations. Yet, despite his willingness to bring his numerous political counterparts together, Sarkozy's leadership remains embryonic at best.

As Barah Mikaïl, a research fellow at the Paris-based Institute for International and Strategic Relations, put it to the Middle East Times, "France was not surpassed by Turkey or by any other actor; instead, it has some capacity for action, but this capacity remains relatively indecisive in the face of regional as well as international power structures.

"One must be clear-sighted," he adds: "the Syrians, just like the Israelis, have the United States for main reference point in the region's evolutions; and this will remain the case as long as Washington leads militarily and diplomatically."

Indeed, Assad himself had warned in his July interview with Le Figaro that despite great opportunities for France in the region, Syria is "betting on the next American president and his administration."

As current head of the rotating European Union presidency Sarkozy has attempted to give a new push to Syria's Association Agreement with Brussels, which has been stalled for years. However, this isn't an issue Sarkozy seems to care as much about.

Overall, as Justin Alexander, a Syria analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) told the Middle East Times: "Clearly Mr. Sarkozy has been working on his credentials as a mediator, most recently in Georgia, and he might be prepared to spend significant political capital in the hope of making progress on Middle East issues."

"However, in this region the devil is always in the detail (and the history) that newcomers may not always appreciate." That is a lesson Sarkozy might quickly learn.

Sarkozy may well be looking for more than political gain; it may well be that Paris' new policy is all about the economy. Sarkozy's kind words and gentle moves towards Damascus are perhaps meant to open doors to fresh markets for France's corporate mammoths.

As Alexander told the Middle East Times: "Economically speaking, Syria is looking for trade and financing opportunities to side-step U.S. sanctions and help it diversify its economy as its oil production falls, compelling it to seek fresh sources of foreign currency and revenue."

This attempt falls into the broader context of Syria's economic fragility, recently described by Ben Judah in a Security Watch article.

Assad is seeking to revamp his country's economy, and Sarkozy intends on lending him the hand he needs.

Meetings between Syrian officials -- notably the country's deputy premier for economic affairs, Abdullah al-Dardari -- and French businessmen have been numerous in recent months. And though no formal signatures have been promised during Sarkozy's visit, several major business deals are currently underway.

Sarkozy's trip is due to serve as a form of ratification for a $1.2 billion contract according to which the French industrial giant Lafarge is to build two cement factories in Syria. With Syria trying to modernize its archaic infrastructure the construction industry promises to be fruitful in years to come.

In addition, Assad and Sarkozy are expected to discuss the possibility of several European Airbus aircraft to be leased and/or bought by Damascus in the near future. Numbers still vary, but some reports claim that Syria could purchase up to 50 new planes in the next couple of decades to brush-up its ageing commercial fleet.

Two other deals are at varying levels of discussion; one is for Total, the French oil company, to exploit Syria's energy resources anew. Though this arrangement has allegedly been passed, details remain to be disclosed.

Last but not least, equipment and services provider Alstom has also been handpicked by Assad to lead in major reconstruction projects.

With all these discussions in mind, Sarkozy's critics will argue that his motives in opening up to Syria appear surprisingly clear. He's in it for the money.

Impartial observers, on the other hand, will likely recognize Sarkozy's subtle move in serving his country's interests: with little political leverage and absent any moral imperatives, the young president is playing the best game he can with the cards he was dealt.

--

Andrew D. Bishop is a regular contributor to the Middle East Times. He blogs at WhatYouMustRead. The views expressed here are solely his own.

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