AQIM aims to pull-off spectacular attacks that make the international headlines. For example, at the end of July a car bomb targeted President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika' s convoy in Bouira. Fortunately, security services thwarted this attack – AQIM's second on the president. In September 2007 a suicide bomber blew himself up in the middle of the crowd that was awaiting the president's arrival, after being spotted by a police officer who lost his life during the attack.

While it is true that Algerian security forces have been relatively successful in fighting off AQIM terrorists, the organization remains very active, carrying out attacks sometimes on a daily basis. On average AQIM is successful in two out of three times. Its members are mostly quite professional, and the trend has been toward an "Iraqization" of its tactics. Car bombs and suicide attacks are the new modus operandi of AQIM. But this switch in tactics has resulted in a huge decline of AQIM's popularity among Algeria's population, especially since they are also very much targeting civilians.

But AQIM is not the only organization that has lost credibility; the Algerian government has too. And for a few reasons.

First, the authorities continue to downplay AQIM's capacity to hit Algeria. The declaration from Interior Minister Zerhouni after each attack repeating that AQIM is dying off and that the latest attack was proof of its weakness and despair is ringing very hollow. Zerhouni also sounds like a broken record when he keeps on repeating that AQIM has only 400 militants. If that were true, then the statistics given by the Algerian army and police of the number of the terrorists they are killing are correct, then there would be no AQIM members alive today. Realistic estimates put AQIM's members at more than 1,000. The authorities would do well not to underestimate AQIM at the risk of looking ridiculous in the eyes of their people and the international community.

This actually follows the failure of the national reconciliation law that was approved by referendum in September 2005 and promulgated in March 2006. The Algerian government had hoped that the general amnesty for terrorists and Islamists jailed would pave the way for reconciliation. From the beginning, AQIM had refused this law. Authorities released 2,200 Islamists and then only a minority of Islamist fighters actually surrendered. Also by releasing dangerous terrorists, Algeria not only put itself in danger but also Western nations. For example, two individuals freed part of this law, were part of two major terror cells recently dismantled in France.

Ramadan, which begins Sept. 1 and is expected to be a period of piety and quiet for Muslims, is seen as conducive for jihad (holy war) by the "emirs" (Islamic leaders), who promise heaven to their fallen "martyrs" during this holy month of fasting. Because of this, Algiers is placed under heavy security with police stationed at the entrances of the city and its major arteries. Nonetheless, it is feared that AQIM could still pull-off another terror attack in the Algerian capital.

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Olivier Guitta, an Adjunct Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a foreign affairs and counterterrorism consultant, is the founder of the newsletter, The Croissant (www.thecroissant.com).