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Could Iran Ally With U.S. in Face of New Regional Developments?
By CLAUDE SALHANI (Editor, Middle East Times)
Published: August 26, 2008
Claude Salhani
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Watch those clichés. There is a reason, usually a pretty good one, that they exist. Two that jump to mind when thinking about the Middle East in the post Georgian-Russian conflict is "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" and "politics makes strange bedfellows." You be the judge of just how applicable these sayings are in view of recent developments in the Caucasus.

Iran and the United States, two enemies who have been at loggerheads for almost 30 years, may soon be driven to adopt the first saying out of mutual national interests, a move that would naturally make the second statement true as well. Iran and the U.S. allies? Yes, well politics does make for strange… anyway.

Ever since the 1979 Islamic Revolution ousted the shah of Iran, abolished the monarchy and installed a strict theocracy based on Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's vision of Islam, and broke diplomatic relations with Washington, Tehran's rulers have regarded the United States as enemy No. 1.

Now, however, the Iranians may find that new developments in the Caucasus/Greater Middle East could compel them to reassess their distrust and dislike of Washington in view of potential rising threats from Russia. This is the "new" Russia that did not hesitate to use overwhelming force to settle a dispute with its neighbor and former member of the now defunct Soviet empire.

The current point of contention between the United States and its allies in Western Europe versus the Islamic Republic over Iran's uranium enrichment program may pale in comparison to Russia's reaction, if Iran -- which historically has been wary of the Russians -- ends up aligning itself, well, let's not say with Washington, but rather opposed to Moscow. The point being, the enemy of my enemy… etc.

In view of Iran's track record over the last 30 years, first in its relentless effort to export the Islamic Revolution, second as an exporter of terrorism and third, as a strong supporter of groups accused by the United States, the European Union and Israel of engaging in terrorism, there is good reason for any country in disagreement with the ruling ayatollahs' ideology to worry about a nuclear armed Iran.

Therefore, there is good reason to believe that Russia, which may seek to expand its influence in the region will inevitably clash with the Islamic Republic.

Granted, even with a half-dozen nuclear warheads, Iran would be no match for the Russians or the United States, each armed with tens of thousands of nuclear weapons, including inter-continental ballistic missiles.

So what's the worry? Some within the intelligence community fear not so much that Iran may become a nuclear power, but what Iran could do on the side with nuclear technology.

Passing a warhead or two to its proxy militia in Lebanon, for instance, who could smuggle it into southern Lebanon from where it could easily be deployed against northern Israel.

Or pro-Iranian terror groups could infiltrate a nuclear weapon into Europe, or even the United States, and possibly even easier into Russia.

With the backing of Iran's infrastructure, the possibilities are unlimited as are the nightmare scenarios.

Under those circumstances it is understandable that the Western alliance, unable to convince Iran through diplomacy to give up on its nuclear ambitions, began contemplating -- and planning -- for a military alternative as a solution.

In the last year or so, rumors have been abundant around the Washington Beltway that the U.S. administration of George W. Bush, edged on by Vice President Dick Cheney, has been contemplating a preemptive military strike to destroy as much of Iran's nuclear building infrastructure as possible.

Israel, of course, has been leading the charge, hoping to convince the United States of the urgency in addressing the Iranian threat.

But Russia, which shares borders with Muslim republics Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, and with its own internal headaches brought on by rebellions in autonomous Muslim republics, would have far more reason to fear an Iran armed with weapons of mass destruction.

If Iran's ruling mullahs have always viewed the United States as the "far enemy" and the biggest threat to their Islamic Revolution, they suddenly have a new foe on the near horizon, one geographically much closer and potentially far more dangerous to them -- Russia.

Russia, or perhaps we should say the "New" Russia, would find the idea of Iran with nukes that much more unacceptable than the United States, given its geographic proximity to the Islamic Republic. Russia is only 106 miles from the closest Iranian border and Moscow is just about within range of Iran's Shahab-3 missiles, which have a range of some 2,000 kilometers, or 1,240 miles.

In the end it could well be the Russians who are looking at a military solution to Iran's nuclear ambitions. Ironic, ain't it? But as they say, politics makes…, oh well.

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