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Abkhazia, Ossetia and Iran – Risks of Spreading Conflicts
By CLAUDE SALHANI (Editor, Middle East Times)
Published: August 12, 2008
Claude Salhani
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There are fears that the conflict in the Caucasus will spread unless fighting there is quickly contained. And to the south events are looking ominous around the Persian Gulf. Developments on the ground do not lend themselves to an optimistic outlook as both Russia and the United States seem to be engaging in unpredictable military adventurism.

Moscow is turning up the heat on Georgia and a deaf ear to Washington's request for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia. Advancing Russian troops are forcing Georgian forces to beat a hasty retreat toward the capital, Tbilisi.

Meanwhile an impressive joint U.S.-European naval task force is heading for Iran, while the presence of an unprecedented number of U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft on the Qatari military airbase of al-Udeid support the belief by numerous observers that a military strike against Iran is looming.

Reports on the Caucasus say Georgia's offer of a ceasefire was apparently rejected by separatists and Georgian forces restarted artillery strikes on Tskhinvali, the capital of the separatist region, as Russian troops entered the city.

"The current conflict faces a real risk of escalation and expansion, most prominently in Abkhazia where the likelihood of an operation to clear Georgian forces from the Kodori Gorge appears increasingly likely and could elicit a military response by Georgian forces deployed to the south of the separatist region," commented Matthew Clements, Eurasia editor of London's authoritative Jane's, the specialists in defense issues.

According to Clements, "Air strikes are likely to continue for the immediate term as Russia seeks to further degrade Georgia's military capabilities. Moscow is now likely to seek the restoration of South Ossetia's de facto independence, albeit on much more favorable terms to the separatists and Russia itself."

Criticism of Russia's response by the United States and Europe is likely to lead to "a further downturn in Russo-Western relations," says Clements, "although any more serious diplomatic responses will likely be dependent upon Russian actions over the next few days."

Georgia's miscalculation in the conflict is likely to cost it dearly as in all likelihood Moscow appears set to thrash Georgia, and by default send Washington and NATO a message that while Russia may no longer enjoy the status of a superpower, it remains a force to be reckoned with when it comes to its former domains.

"Overall, Georgia is facing reduced control over both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a short- to medium-term reduction in its military capabilities and greatly reduced hopes of one day joining NATO, with the organization likely to view Tbilisi's actions in South Ossetia as being far too unpredictable for a potential alliance member," added Clements.

Georgia's military is no match for Russia's far stronger army. Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments of the two countries gives a clear indication of the disproportionate balance of power between Russia and what was in the days of the Soviet Union part of the Soviet empire.

Georgia's total armed forces are comprised of 26,900 personnel: Russia has 641,000 troops.

Georgia has 82 T-72 main battle tanks; Russia has 6,717 main battle tanks (T-55, T-62, T-72, T-80 and T-90).

Georgia has 139 armored personnel carriers (BMP and BTR variants): Russia has 6,388.

Georgia has seven combat aircraft (Su-25 ground attack): Russia can count on 1,206 combat aircraft comprising MiG-29 'Fulcrum', MiG-31 'Foxhound', Su-27 'Flanker', Su-30 'Flanker', Su-35 'Flanker', Su-24 'Fencer', Su-25 'Frogfoot', Su-34 'Fullback.'

Georgia has 95 heavy artillery pieces (including Grad BM-21 122mm multiple rocket launchers): Russia's artillery includes 7,550 multiple types of heavy artillery.

And less than 1,000 miles south in the Persian Gulf, another storm may be brewing, making the month of August hotter than usual.

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