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The Middle East Mirage
By GEORGE S. HISHMEH
Published: August 07, 2008
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It all depends on whether one is an optimist or a pessimist to argue if there will be, as promised, an "outline" for a fair conclusion to the slow-moving peace talks between the Palestinians and Israelis before U.S. President George W. Bush leaves office in six month's time. For a start, the belated talks have been plagued by the presence of three weak leaders at the helms in Palestine, Israel and the United States, all approaching their last days in office.

The embarrassing record of Ehud Olmert, the discredited Israeli prime minister – who has just announced he will not seek reelection in his Kadima party's internal election in six weeks' time, which could be perceived as an admission of guilt in the bribery charges against him – has raised many questions about his real motives. (Three of the last four former Israeli prime ministers were likewise under investigation for corruption upon leaving office.)

Although the Israeli prime minister may deserve some credit for pursuing negotiations with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, the record of his administration in mistreating Palestinians has been disgraceful.

The continued siege of the Gaza Strip; the strip-searches that Palestinians, male and female, are exposed to; the refusal to give building permits to Arab residents in occupied East Jerusalem – last year more than 1,000 demolition orders for "illegal dwellings" have been issued; the continued expansion in Israeli settlements and the growing number of West Bank roads confined to Israeli traffic; and the construction of a "separation wall" on Palestinian land are only but a few of the examples that Palestinians give for the recent incidents as those that took place in Jerusalem when two Palestinian-driven bulldozers plowed into Israeli traffic.

More shocking has been this week's report from Physicians for Human Rights in Israel which revealed that Gazans seeking medical treatment abroad have been pressured by Israeli security services to work as informers. The group declared that such tactics violated international law, citing the Fourth Geneva Convention, which explicitly prohibited coercing civilians into providing intelligence information.

The likely successor of Olmert, that is if a successor is elected next month (or else Olmert may stay in office for several more months) is his foreign minister, Tzipi Livni. However, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, a former army chief of staff, remains a strong rival.

But if Olmert's party is split as expected, or if Mofaz is the preferred choice, or the ruling coalition disintegrates, national elections will take place next spring; again allowing Olmert to hang on. Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the right-wing Likud Party, is then favored to win that election – a disastrous turnaround for any peacemaker.

On the other side is the bloody infighting among rival Palestinian factions: Islamist Hamas and secular Fatah. Especially deplorable was last week's clash in Gaza, which led some of Abbas's supporters to seek refuge in Israel and has embarrassed many a Palestinian.

"At the end of the day, everybody – we Palestinians – have lost, but Hamas has won," Eyad Sarraj, the Gaza commissioner of the Palestinian Independent Human Rights Committee, commented wryly.

Hanan Ashrawi, a prominent Palestinian legislator who participated in earlier peace talks with Israel, lamented the state of Palestinian affairs as, "highly dangerous" and "difficult to resolve between the two movements." In other words, the Egyptian-sponsored unity talks may not see the light of day.

As far as the United States is concerned, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice remains surprisingly hopeful. She is reported to be eager to present a "diplomatic achievement" before the U.N. General Assembly's annual meeting in New York next month. "There is still time for them, in accordance with the Annapolis [decision], to reach agreement by the end of the year and we will keep working for that goal."

This Middle East mirage will not vanish until some realism is injected all around. Weak leaders are incapable of bringing about solid results. Although the recent bilateral negotiations among the region's warring parties have been uplifting, the results still need the endorsement of bigger sponsors, the United States and Europe, for example.

In a moment of great abandon, Olmert had touched upon this much-needed realism in his off-the-cuff remarks in Washington on June 9, 2005 as revealed this week by the Israel Policy Forum's M. J. Rosenberg, who quoted him saying:

"We are tired of fighting, we are tired of being courageous, we are tired of winning, we are tired of defeating our enemies. We want to live in an entirely different environment with our enemies. We want them to be our friends, our partners, our good neighbors, and I believe that this is not impossible and it is within reach if we are smart, if we will dare, if we are prepared to take the risks, and if we will be able to convince our Palestinian partners to be able to do the same."

--

George S. Hishmeh is a syndicated columnist.

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