In light of what occurred over the past few months, a case can be made that Assad is really having a change of heart. Since actions speak louder than words, let's look at the facts.

First, in February, Hezbollah terror master Imad Mugnieh was assassinated in Damascus in what is likely a Syrian-made operation. The investigation over Mugnieh's death was quickly terminated and Iran and Hezbollah did not get the answers they were waiting for.

Second, Assef Shawkat, the powerful head of Syrian security and Assad's brother-in-law was suddenly pushed aside. Shawkat is close to Tehran and has allegedly a hand in former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's murder in Beirut in 2005.

Third, Assad acknowledged publicly peace negotiations with Israel.

Fourth, Assad agreed on opening a Syrian embassy in Beirut, something his country has always refused since it considered that Lebanon is just a Syrian province. This was a huge condition for the French who see it a pledge given by Damascus to Lebanese sovereignty.

Fifth, Syria has, according to Arab sources, made a big "summer housecleaning" by eliminating dozens of prisoners at the Sidnaya prison. Among them, two leaders of Jund al-Sham, the Islamist organization linked to Syrian services. They are A. Zacaria and K. Omar. The first one was close to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and was recruiting combatants for Iraq. The second one was close to Abu Qaaqaa, the Syrian preacher killed last fall by the regime to erase the traces of official Syrian involvement in terrorism in Iraq. Less than a week after these "accidental" deaths, two leaders of "Jund al-Sham" in the Palestinian camp of Ain el-Helweh in south Lebanon, Chehadé Jaohar and Abu Ramez al-Sahmarani, were killed with one of their lieutenants. In a way, Syria is sacrificing its agents to be rehabilitated.

Sixth, according to the Kuwaiti daily Al-Seyassah, Syria also asked Hamas leaders based in Damascus to leave the Syrian territory. The latter could move into the southern suburbs of Beirut, the Hezbollah stronghold.

Seventh, Syria is allegedly trying to break up Hezbollah. Al-Seyassah believes that Syria has resumed its contacts with the former secretary general of Hezbollah and one of its co-founders, Sobhi Toufaili. Syria wants to strengthen Toufaili's faction to weaken Hassan Nasrallah and divide the party. To do so, the Syrians have promised Toufaili military aid and funding to break up Hezbollah.

In light of Syria's history and mastery of deception, this could just all be an Assad ploy. For instance the likely opening of a Syrian embassy in Lebanon could be seen as just a tiny concession rather than a big sign of things changing in Syrian-Lebanese relations. The March 14 Movement, the anti-Syrian Lebanese majority, are very dubious. An analyst close to that camp said: "What will it serve? There was an Iraqi embassy in Kuwait, this did not prevent Saddam Hussein from invading the emirate."

The $64,000 question remains: will Syria break off ties with Tehran? This is what it is all really about.

While it looks that Syria's relations with Hezbollah have deteriorated since Mugnieh's death, signs of a real drift between Damascus and Tehran have not emerged. The reason why is that Iran is bankrolling Syria's economy and Assad will have to find a way to replace Tehran's funding at some point. His overture to France is really to grab Washington's attention. Assad thinks he can use Sarkozy to get to the George W. Bush administration and ink a deal that would assure him international respectability and a large financial package (similar to what Egypt receives from the United States).

Like all authoritarian regimes, Assad worries about two things: staying in power and money. There is only one country other than Iran that can assure him of this, and it is the United States. The question for Washington is to assess if it is worth breaking Syria's alliance with Iran in the current overly tensed situation with the mullahs' regime.

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Olivier Guitta, an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a foreign affairs and counterterrorism consultant, is the founder of the newsletter The Croissant (www.thecroissant.com).