As things currently stand, it could go either way in any of the four theaters of conflict: Israel-Palestine, Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon-Syria.

1. In the Palestinian territories, where U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney stopped on Easter Sunday during a Middle East trip, there is growing dissatisfaction from the street with the way Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is handing the crisis. Abbas's popularity, which was never his forte in the first place, is being whittled away ever more by his political rival, the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas.

Senior Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat warned of a possible collapse of the Palestinian Authority if a peace deal with the Israelis was not reached this year.

"If we fail to produce an agreement in 2008, we may disappear," Erekat said.

The possibility of such a thing happening is very real, with Hamas already in charge of the Gaza Strip. "The impact will not be limited to Israel and the Palestinians," cautioned Erekat. "Watch the region," he warned.

"People are angry with us. Their pessimism and anger is because of our inability to deliver," he said, referring to a recent poll. The demise of the Palestinian Authority could usher in a new intifada, or uprising; and although some within the Palestinian leadership are advocating a peaceful intifada, it would not require very much to ignite into a much larger conflict involving both Gaza and the West Bank, as well as Hezbollah on the northern frontier with Lebanon.

Israel, for its part, can also ill-afford to maintain the status quo while a continuous barrage of rockets hits towns and cities in southern Israel, wrecking havoc on the country's economy and perturbing life for tens of thousands of citizens who live in constant fear of Hamas's artillery.

The risk of expanding the conflict could stem from the government's frustration at its inability to put an end to this war of attrition and a its subsequent decision that military action is the only solution. That would be a monumental mistake. As Erekat said, "watch the region."

It is precisely with the region in mind that the U.S. vice president made a point of stopping in Ramallah and Jerusalem in an effort to nudge Israelis and Palestinians back onto the peace train. Peace, Dick Cheney pointed out after his meeting in Ramallah with the Palestinian president, would require "painful concessions" by both sides.

"Achieving that vision will require tremendous effort at the negotiating table and painful concessions on both sides," said Cheney. "It also will require a determination by those who are committed to violence and who refuse to accept the basic right of the other side to exist," said the vice president.

Indeed, they need only consider the far more painful alternative.

2. The Iraqi front has gotten more violent in recent days where Easter also marked another sad landmark – the death toll among U.S. military personnel passing the 4,000 mark. And in a rare attack on the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad on Sunday, at least 15 civilians were killed by sustained mortar and rocket fire. Further violence was reported in other parts of the country as the war entered its sixth year, as al-Qaida in Iraq seems to be engaged in a new offensive as though to prove that the surge which forced it out of numerous areas in Iraq, did not finish it off.

3. Iran continues to preoccupy the Bush administration as the Islamic republic pursues its nuclear ambitions. A number of observers believe that part of Cheney's recent Middle East tour was to drum up support among Iran's neighbors in case the United States takes up decisive military action against Iran.

4. And finally Lebanon and Syria, where the U.S. administration has been watching very closely Syria's involvement in Lebanon's internal affairs. The Arab summit, scheduled to be held this weekend in Damascus, might be stillborn after Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak announced on Easter Sunday he may not attend due to disagreements with Syria over its role in Lebanon. Instead, the Egyptian president would head to Moscow for consultations.

All this does not augur well for a peaceful resolution of the region's many conflicts, unless the Arab leaders take those painful steps toward peace.