The current political standoff over the appointment of the next president, pitting pro-Syrian factions against the March 14 Movement opposed to Syria's meddling in Lebanese affairs, appears to be coming to a head after months of stagnation. The division between the various Lebanese political camps is somewhat more complicated this time than during the 1975-91 civil war. Renewed outbreak of violence in Lebanon could well result with its two neighbors – Syria and Israel, as well as Iran - being pulled into the dispute, thus turning the conflict into a larger regional war.
Walid Jumblatt, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, who commands the loyalty of the majority of Lebanon's Druze community, and a leading figure in the pro-government March 14 Movement, has in two separate television interviews spared no words in accusing Syria and their Lebanese allies, blaming them for the current political impasse.
Hezbollah and its allies – backed by Syria and Iran – have repeatedly held up the election of the next president over disagreements that the candidates presented by the pro-government side were hostile to Syria. Parliament, whose speaker Nabih Berri leans toward Damascus, has postponed the presidential vote 14 times.
Just a couple of months ago Jumblatt accused Syrian President Bashar Assad of being responsible for the string of assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians and journalists in Lebanon. For the first time Jumblatt publicly admitted that the former Syrian President Hafez Assad was personally responsible for the assassination of his own father, Kamal Jumblatt.
And earlier this week Jumblatt turned his frustration and anger at Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader.
"Our existence, dignity and survival, and Lebanon, are the most important things of all," Jumblatt said. "If you want chaos, we welcome chaos. If you want war, we welcome one," added Jumblatt.
In the televised interview Jumblatt was particularly critical of Nasrallah, accusing him of "dragging the country into anarchy."
Saad Hariri, son of assassinated Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who now leads his father's anti-Syrian coalition has also stepped up his verbal attacks against the opposition Hezbollah movement, warning of pending anarchy and raising the specter of another civil war.
Next Thursday will mark the third anniversary of Rafiq Hariri's assassination and the pro-government forces are calling for a mega-march on the city center to mark the event. Supporters of Hezbollah have been squatting the downtown area for months now hoping to pressure the government of Fouad Siniora to resign. Things could get ugly if the two sides were to come to blows.
Addressing Nasrallah, Jumblatt said: "If you think that we will stand with our hands tied, this is pure imagination."
Saad Hariri, who assumed his father's mantle as leader of the parliamentary majority, was also outspoken this week when he accused Syria of meddling in Lebanon's affairs. He called for a massive march to commemorate the third anniversary of his father's assassination.
"On February 14, we will all go down to Martyrs Square to say in one voice that the Lebanese are united, that they reject terrorism and that all attempts to intimidate us won't succeed," said the young Hariri.
"We are faced with the political and terrorist presence in Lebanon of the Syrian and Iranian regimes, but we will not sit by and watch," he said.
Jumblatt told Nasrallah he would be ready to disarm the Shiite militia and take their Katyusha rockets away. Since the end of the civil war in 1991 Hezbollah has been the only militia to officially retain their weapons, including rockets, claiming that they are defending Lebanese territory from possible Israeli attacks. One area of contention has been the region in south Lebanon juxtaposed between Lebanon and Syria and Israel called the Shebaa Farms. The "farms" are currently occupied by Israel, who says they belong to Syria. Hezbollah claims the farms as part of Lebanon's territory. During the Second Lebanon War – which opposed Hezbollah to the Israeli army – the Shiite militia fired hundreds of rockets at northern Israel.
The danger of an all out confrontation is not to be dismissed. Several analysts believe that in the event of hostilities breaking out, Hezbollah will drag Israel into the conflict by launching rockets at the Jewish state. Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, which has been bombarding Israeli population centers with Qassam rockets in recent weeks, may, at the behest of Iran, join the fight.
Israel, which has already voiced its intention of decapitating the Hamas leadership, may decide to go after the group's military leadership based in the Syrian capital. An Israeli attack on Damascus may activate the Syrian-Iranian defense pact.
Commenting on the precariousness hanging over his country, Hariri said: "If confrontation is our destiny, then we stand ready."

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