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Analysis: Bush's peace plan: 364 days left
By CLAUDE SALHANI (Editor, Middle East Times)
Published: January 21, 2008
A Palestinian woman arrives with her child at Al-Shifa hospital after an Israeli warplane targeted the Ministry of the Interior in Gaza, on January 18, 2008. Reportedly no one was in the building at the time, but one woman was killed and at least 40 people were wounded in the area, medics and witnesses said. (UPI Photo/Ismael Mohamad)
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As of Jan. 21, George W. Bush will have 364 days left as president of the United States, one day short of a full year. That is an awfully short amount of time, especially when he is hoping to achieve a breakthrough settlement of the Arab-Israeli peace talks crisis, the fruit of which could yield lasting peace and the creation of a Palestinian state.

Indeed, that is a rather tall order to fill in just under a year, even for a president of the United States. A year passes by fast, and the clock is ticking.

If Bush is to achieve his objectives, he must overcome within this time frame a series of monumental hurdles from which neither side seems to want to budge. Among those hurdles are the three top issues of major concern to both Israelis and Palestinians.

They are: First, where to draw the final borders between a future Palestinian state and the state of Israel. Second, Jerusalem as capital city of both the Jewish and Palestinian states. And third, is the issue of the right of return of Palestinian refugees.

Complicating this further is that each issue is burdened by multiple stumbling blocks. Every proposition for a solution will be met by any number of counter-proposals, each setting back talks by months, at least.

For example, Palestinians want one contiguous territory for their state (as any country would hope and expect), whereas Israel is suggesting a state that would appear, geographically speaking, remarkably akin to the old Bantustans in South Africa. Ask how you could connect Gaza to the West Bank without taking land away from Israel and you get an idea of the difficulty of this problem.

And how do you solve the issue of Jerusalem, claimed by both sides as their capital?

And to the question of the Palestinian right of return: Here Bush has, for the first time, advanced the prospect of "compensation." Translation: Not all Palestinian refugees are returning home. Problem: How to decide who wins and who doesn't, and under what criteria?

Rather than finding solutions, it appears as though we are entering a new phase of intransigence, with both sides retrenching and very likely re-arming, in preparation for the next wave of violence; which by the way, has already started in Gaza.

At least 39 Palestinians, including six civilians, were killed last week by Israeli gunfire, according to figures provided by hospitals in the Gaza strip.

The upsurge of violence that erupted over the weekend in the Gaza Strip between Hamas militants and the Israeli military plays right into the hands of the anti-democratic forces, with support from outside countries.

Hamas, and the smaller but perhaps more radical Palestinian Islamic Jihad, are funded and equipped to a large part by the Islamic republic of Iran. Hamas, for one, does not accept the concept of Israel as the home of the Jewish nation. In several interviews to this reporter Hamas high officials have reiterated their willingness to a ceasefire with Israel, even an extended ceasefire "that could last up to 100 years," as one Hamas official said.

So while a ceasefire is acceptable, Hamas' policy -- at least so far -- has been to never accept the notion of Israel as a viable nation in the Middle East. And just to make sure the point is not missed, Hamas has been launching dozens of home-made Qassam rockets and mortars on Israeli towns and cities, with the primary target been the city of Sderot, the closest Israeli town to the Gaza strip.

Among the casualties in last week's Israeli raid on Gaza was the son of Mahmoud Zahar, Hamas leader in Gaza. The death of Zahar's son, his second son to die violently, helped thaw some of the ice between Fatah and Hamas, who have been at odds since Hamas' coup last June, when the Islamist movement threw out Fatah militants from Gaza, taking over control of the over-crowded strip of land on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea.

Justifying its actions, an Israeli Army spokesperson said that Israel had only attacked a Hamas headquarters and avoided targeting civilians. And Israel said it would continue to attack Gaza so long as Palestinian violence continues.

Also, late last week, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak announced that Israel would seal off all crossings in and out of Gaza, thus isolating the strip and the nearly 1.5 million people living in the desolate area.

Almost everything that Gaza consumes comes from outside, making the population of the strip entirely dependent on imports for the most basic of supplies. But, if Bush can somehow navigate through all these obstacles and achieve peace within the next 364 days, it will be nothing short of a miracle. The answer in 364 days.

--

Claude Salhani is Editor of Middle East Times

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