A not very well known fact illustrates Europe's determination vis-à-vis Iran: the EU has gone further than the two U.N. Security Council resolutions against Iran actually require. It has sanctioned additional entities and banned some additional transactions.
For instance, let's take a look at what is happening in the Netherlands. Dutch universities and research centers have been told by authorities to be very careful when evaluating Iranian student candidates, especially those studying sensitive subjects. For example, Twente University recently refused admission to three Iranian students wanting to study nuclear techniques. It is also thinking about refusing to admit any students at all from Iran.
The tough European stance is surprising since there are huge commercial interests at stake. In fact, as of 2006, the EU was by far the largest Iranian trade partner, dealing with 28 percent of Iran's total trade, ahead of China at 12 percent.
Interestingly one of Iran's largest trading partners happens to be France. And France, under the new administration of President Nicolas Sarkozy has taken the lead on the Iranian nuclear issue. Compared to his predecessor, Jacques Chirac, Sarkozy has been quite forceful and consistent on his statements regarding Iran. He has time and again said that Iran must be prevented from getting a nuclear bomb. His foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, went as far as saying that the world should be prepared for a war over this issue. Also Sarkozy has been pushing hard on convincing EU countries to adopt their own sanctions against Iran.
Iran is noticing this change of heart from some Europeans nations. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threatened Sarkozy in a Nov. 12 letter. According to diplomatic sources cited by Le Monde, the tone of the letter was "acrimonious" and it contained "veiled threats." In it, Sarkozy is described as a "young and inexperienced" leader, whom Ahmadinejad offers to advise. In substance, the Iranian president says that France and Iran have "historic relations" and "common interests," in particular in Lebanon, and that it would be a shame to reduce this to nothing. Also Ahmadinejad is upset by the French proposal to adopt sanctions against Iran at the EU level, i.e. outside of the United Nations. It is interesting to note that Ahmadinejad added that such an approach was doomed to failure because neither Germany nor Italy would sign on it.
But in light of recent developments, Ahmadinejad's analysis seems flawed. Indeed, the word from Berlin is that the administration of Chancellor Angela Merkel is ready to accept sanctioning Iran at the EU level if a third wave of sanctions fails at the United Nations; which is a given.
And this is a welcome change. Until this year, Germany was Iran's largest trading partner (now China is first) and has been reluctant adopt a hard-line against the regime in Tehran. But in a clear sign of disengagement, German exports to Iran fell by 16 percent in 2007 and German banks have cut lots of ties with Iranian clients.
But, in light of this, Iran could use the terrorism weapon to punish European nations. Ahmadinejad's letter, for example, was a warning to the French soldiers present among the UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon. Also, it is very likely that Iran could use its proxy, Hezbollah, to orchestrate a terror campaign in Europe or against European interests around the world, as it did back in 1986 in the streets of Paris.
At the end of November, British authorities confirmed that some Hezbollah sleeping cells in Britain have threatened to strike if Iran is attacked.
According to British intelligence, Hezbollah, a Shiite organization designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, has sleeping cells in more than 40 countries on all continents, mostly in Europe and the Gulf.
Iran financed the Hezbollah cells at the onset of its nuclear program, expecting an armed conflict. These cells are just awaiting Tehran's orders to strike. And Europe might well be the first target.
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Olivier Guitta, an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and a foreign affairs and counterterrorism consultant, is the founder of the newsletter The Croissant (www.thecroissant.com).