In fact, unsurprisingly Hezbollah has been planning and implementing a secret coup for some time using a multi-pronged strategy.

First with a smart political weapon. Against all odds Hezbollah struck a deal with Christian heavyweight and formerly anti-Syrian leader, General Michel Aoun. This was the initial step in creating a major division within Lebanon's Christian community.

But that was just the beginning. Hezbollah is now trying to infiltrate Aoun's party the Free Patriotic Movement (also known as CPL), as recently reported by Kuwait's daily newspaper Al Seyassah. One of their allies in this is Simon Abiramia, a French-Lebanese Maronite married to Fabienne Blineau, the French head of the Lebanese section of the governing party in France, UMP. Blineau happens to be very close to David Martinon, spokesman of French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Hezbollah hopes that Blineau succeeds in lobbying the French government to adopt a softer stance on Hezbollah. Interestingly, France is the major roadblock in Europe when it comes to including Hezbollah on the EU's list of terrorist organizations.

Also the fact that French diplomacy was behind that latest compromise regarding Sleiman's candidacy, seems to indicate that one way or another Hezbollah got what it wanted from France.

Hezbollah is not limiting its efforts to the Christian community. In fact, it is also targeting the Sunni community, allegedly "buying off" Sunni leaders, especially in Tripoli. Al Seyassah recently reported that Iran allotted a $30 million budget to meet that goal. And the rift within the Sunni community is becoming more visible by the day. Latest proof: intra-Sunni violence. On Nov. 27, in the Abi Samra neighborhood of Tripoli, a shooting killed two and injured seven, some critically. This incident involved partisans of Saad Hariri's Future movement - belonging to a group called Afwaj Trablos and founded a few months ago - and a fundamentalist pro-Syrian group, Al Tawhid. The army had to intervene to separate the combatants.

The second part of Hezbollah's strategy is to use its financial power. Profiting from the economic distress of the Christian and Druze communities and the desire of some to emigrate, Hezbollah has been buying - with Tehran's financial help - huge land parcels in the mostly dominated Christian and Druze areas in the south and the Bekaa.

This strategy is aimed at ensuring territorial continuity of the Shiite areas, hence helping out the military ambitions of the Party of God.

Third, Hezbollah is using its military weight to gain influence. Al Akhbar, a paper close to Hezbollah, broke the following story a few weeks ago:

Fearing for his life, a Lebanese minister in the Siniora government had been traveling around in the back of an ambulance that had been lent him by a private hospital. The minister even fooled security forces who believed he was ill and was being transported to hospital.

The importance of this story lies mostly in the source. This Hezbollah-leaning newspaper is sending a message to the cabinet members and majority members of parliament: 'Whatever you do to protect yourselves, we will know about it and you will never be safe.'

In light of the recent murders of majority MPs, such veiled threats should not be taken lightly. And they are not.

About 40 MPs from the Lebanese majority have been holed up for several months in the luxurious Phoenicia hotel in Beirut, a decision made by the parliamentary groups belonging to the majority in order to protect their MPs.

However, this tactic may not be a good idea: the Phoenicia is still open for business, and despite tight security around the MPs Hezbollah or Syria could launch a massive strike against the hotel and kill 40 anti-Syrian leaders all at once.

Indeed, some Lebanese believe that Syria had no qualms to murder four of their leaders in less than two years and its goal is to slowly or quickly deplete the Lebanese majority of numerical advantage in parliament.

Unfortunately in Lebanon, the French saying still applies: "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose;" (the more it changes, the more it remains the same.)

Hezbollah and Syria appear to be calling the shots and the democratic forces have been abandoned by the West.

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Olivier Guitta is a foreign affairs and counterterrorism consultant in Washington DC and the founder of the newsletter The Croissant. (www.thecroissant.com)