The grim findings in the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), made public at US President George W. Bush's request, cast doubt on the White House's politically potent premise that the United States is winning the global war on terrorism.
The NIE, which represented the consensus of the 16 US spy agencies in April, said the US-led campaign triggered by the September 11, 2001 attacks had "seriously damaged" Osama Bin Laden's Al Qaeda network.
But it warned that the number of self-described "jihadists" globally was "increasing both in number and geographic dispersion" making extremists "harder to find and undermine" and that this could mean "increasing attacks worldwide."
In perhaps its bleakest assessment, the report found that "the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of this estimate," five years.
It also found that Bush, who maintains that the war in Iraq has made the United States safer, was warned by intelligence agencies in April that the conflict was acting as a de-facto recruiting sergeant for terrorist groups.
"The Iraq conflict has become the 'cause celebre' for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement," the report said.
While it did not lend support to Bush's strategy in Iraq, the report lent credence to his contention that victory there could be a significant blow in the "war on terrorism."
"Perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere," it said, but "should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves and be perceived to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight."
It also lent strong support to the embattled president's contention that spreading democracy in the Muslim world could be a powerful antidote to the social ills that he says fuel terrorism.
"Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit," it said. "Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit," it warned.
Bush ordered parts of the "key judgments" of the assessment made public after weekend media reports cited US officials as saying that it concluded that the Iraq war had made global terrorism worse.
Bush blasted those reports as stemming from politically motivated leaks, while opposition Democrats rushed to embrace them as ammunition ahead of November 7 elections that will decide control of the US Congress and shape the president's last two years in office.
Key US anti-terror ally Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf further roiled the debate Tuesday by saying on CNN that he believed the conflict "has made the world a more dangerous place."
A clearly angered Bush earlier Tuesday said he would declassify parts of the document, saying releasing portions of the report would "stop all the speculation" and "gossip" linking Iraq and terrorism.
Even before he spoke, and before the partial declassification, opposition Democrats demanded the entire report should be released along with other recent intelligence assessments on Iraq and terrorism.
"The American people deserve the full story, not those parts of it that the Bush administration selects. President Bush should declassify the entire NIE," Democratic Senator Edward Kennedy said in a statement.
Democrats also demanded a closed door briefing by Negroponte.
The top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, California Representative Jane Harman, leveled the explosive charge that the White House was suppressing a separate intelligence assessment focused solely on Iraq.
"That is because some of our leaders don't want us to see it until after the election," she said.
Bush's homeland security adviser, Frances Townsend, flatly denied the charge, telling reporters on a conference call that that assessment had been requested in August and would typically take four to six months to complete. "It means the timing has got nothing to do with the election," she said.
© 2006 Agence France-Presse
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