As Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai arrives in Washington to press for long-term support from the United States, the fiercest fighting between NATO forces and Taliban militants rages in the south. More than 60 insurgents died in clashes over the weekend. CAPS conflict tracking shows violent attacks have occurred in all but two of the country's provinces.
Suicide terrorism, once unheard of in the country, has become bolder and more widespread, with 48 suicide attacks recorded so far this year - more than double last year's total, according to the Center for Conflict and Peace Studies (CAPS), a Kabul-based organization that focuses on terrorism and security analysis.
Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan have upgraded their jihad tactics, using Iraqi-style suicide and remote-controlled bombings and better communications to wage their deadliest campaign since being ousted five years ago, international security forces and experts say.
Kabul's reputation as a bastion of stability ruptured September 8 when a suicide bomber detonated near a US military convoy in the heart of the city, killing two American soldiers and 14 Afghans. Two days later, the governor of Paktia province and two aides were killed when a suicide bomber exploded outside his home.
But the biggest victims have been civilians, CAPS Director Hekmat Karzai told United Press International, noting that 84 percent of suicide casualties have been civilians.
The suicide bombing phenomenon began September 9, 2001, when two Arab Al Qaeda operatives posing as journalists killed charismatic Northern Alliance Commander Ahmed Shah Massoud, according to Karzai. It is said that Al Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden was doing the Taliban a favor by eliminating its most capable adversary in the likelihood of US reprisal for the imminent September 11 attacks, which ultimately brought about the regime's downfall in late 2001 for sheltering the terror network.
The Taliban has since evolved to view itself as "part of the global jihad," embracing a pan-Islamist ideology and its tools, Karzai told UPI. "The Taliban that we knew before was not the same Taliban - tactically, ideologically and strategically."
Kalashnikov rifles and make-shift land mines are yesterday's weapons. Karzai said the Taliban and other militants had regrouped in lawless areas inside the Pakistani border, where imported Al Qaeda operatives trained them and promoted suicide and roadside bombing tactics while highlighting their efficacy in Iraq. He added that the most advanced remote-controlled technologies are now found in Afghanistan, having made their way from Iraq and other criminal channels.
CAPS figures indicate a marked surge in attacks throughout Afghanistan: 85 in July, 136 in August, and if the frequency continues - 150-plus for the month of September. All but two provinces in the country have experienced violent attacks, the organization said.
In May the BBC reported that foreign militants with experience in Iraq have incentivized Afghan insurgents to adopt more Iraqi-style tactics with large bounties for dead US soldiers; videos of Iraqi kidnapping victims being beheaded are also said to be shown.
Last year, a man from Khost province appeared in the first video testimony of an Afghan suicide bomber. He later blew himself up at a Kabul military training center, killing 13 people.
The same Taliban that banned television and video while in power has turned to modern communications technology to attract followers and sow fear in rural areas, according to CAPS. The movement now spreads its propaganda on jihadist Websites and radio, where illiterate Afghans fed up with a weak government that has failed to deliver security and basic services are especially prone to rumor. Pro-Taliban leaflets and pictures are commonly distributed.
Similar to Iraq, Taliban militants have also set up bogus checkpoints on main roadways, killing Afghans they accuse of collaborating with the state or international forces. CAPS documented one instance in which clean-shaven Taliban disguised as police pulled over a bus and asked passengers if they worked for the government; those that stepped forward were never heard from again.
"The copycat element is probably being used," Maj. Luke Knittig, spokesman for the International Security Assistance Force, told UPI. He said security forces have responded to the increasing frequency of suicide attacks and sophistication of devices with experts versed in bombing tactics, more patrols and checkpoints, and an emphasis on communications efforts to gain the vital cooperation of the Afghan population.
Conceding the threat "can ultimately be defeated, but not entirely eliminated," Maj. Knittig still asserted that violence-weary Afghans were not likely to put up with being victimized by indiscriminate Taliban violence.
A comprehensive study of 91 insurgencies after World War II conducted by Seth Jones, a counterinsurgency analyst at the RAND Corporation think tank, shows that groups who commit mass civilian killings are most likely to fail.
Analysis: Taliban upgrades jihad strategy
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