At some point in the next couple of months an extraordinary threshold will be reached, when the 10-millionth crossing will be recorded on the Green Line boundary that still nominally divides the island of Cyprus.
Since the border first opened in April 2003, there have been 9.5 million crossings. Every day, more than 10,000 workers from the Turkish-occupied northern part of the island cross the Green Line to work in the more prosperous south. And Greek Cypriots cross back, some to visit the homes from which they were evicted when the Turkish army invaded and occupied the north in 1974.
But the opening of the Green Line and the steady flow of human traffic and goods and economic relationships has begun to create its own momentum that is now challenging the political obstacles to a resolution of the island's division.
Turkish Cypriots are themselves recognizing the government of Cyprus (even though Turkey does not) by flocking to get Cypriot documents. Of the 90,000 recognized Turkish Cypriots (those born on the island and born to parents who lived on the island before the 1974 invasion), over 60,000 have applied for Cypriot birth certificates, 57,000 for Cyprus identity cards, and over 32,000 for Cyprus passports. Over 7,000 are employed by the Cyprus government, which claims that by adding the costs of the wages and pensions and school tuition and the free electricity it provides, it has pumped over $700 million into the economy of the north.
And yet the prospects of a political settlement remain elusive. The peace plan that was brokered by United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan in 2004 was accepted by the Turkish Cypriots, but rejected by the Greek Cypriots, who objected primarily to its acceptance that Turkish troops could remain on the island for another 19 years.
The prospects of a settlement have risen and fallen with Turkey's prospects for joining the European Union. Turkey could hardly join the EU if it continued to refuse to recognize the existence of Cyprus as an existing EU member state. The Republic of Cyprus has voted for Turkey's admission to the EU, once the usual and general EU conditions of democratic government, rule of law, human rights and economic convergence are met.
Cyprus remains a difficult issue for Turkish governments, since nationalist sentiment supports the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, founded after the 1974 invasion, which many Turks still defend as a necessary measure to protect the Turkish Cypriot minority after a short-lived coup by Greek nationalists.
Turkey faces other problems in its bid to join the EU, including public opposition in some EU counties to accepting a much poorer country of over 70 million Muslims. Two weeks ago, a Turkish-EU foreign ministers meeting in Vienna ended with modest progress, and an EU complaint that Turkey had still not implemented a customs agreement requiring free movement and free trade with Cyprus. The European parliament has also voted overwhelmingly for a resolution that calls on Turkey to implement the customs package and lift its ban on the use of Turkish ports and airports by Cypriot ships and planes.
The UN's Kofi Annan met Cyprus President Tassos Papadopoulos in Paris earlier this month, and agreed that one way forward could be an agreement to de-militarize the island. President Papadopoulos also proposed breaking the deadlock on the customs agreement through a joint use of the port of Famagusta in the Turkish-occupied north. Turkey responded by refusing to meet Annan's envoy on Cyprus, Michael Moller, claiming that he was biased against Turkey and personally responsible for the outcome of the Paris meeting.
Cyprus claims that Turkey is dragging its feet, and continuing to use its voting power to block the entry of Cyprus into a range of international organizations, from the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development to the Open Skies Treaty, and from the Missile Technology Control regime to the EU-NATO dialog.
The next important step will be the scheduled visit of Turkish foreign minister Abdullah Gul to Washington on March 26. But the agenda for his talks with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice includes Iran and Iraq as well as Cyprus. As a result, Cypriot officials fear that American concern for Turkish support in Iraq and Iran means that little pressure will be put on Gul to make compromises on Cyprus.
Gul is expected to stick with his proposal of January for four-party talks, comprising Greece and Turkey and the Greek-Cypriots and Turkish-Cypriots, which Cyprus rejects as putting their Republic (recognized by the EU as being the authority for the whole island) on the same footing as the breakaway Turkish-Cypriot Republic.
But while the diplomats wrangle, another kind of reality is being established by the effective opening of the Green Line and the growing economic relationship across it. The Cyprus government might be tempted to let this alternate reality continue and to let Turkish-Cypriots vote with their feet to normalize life on the island.
"The problem with that is that Turkish settlement continues, as Turks come from the mainland to live and work in northern Cyprus," Cyprus Ambassador in Washington Euripides Evriviades told United Press International.
"The systematic colonization of the northern territory of the country, along with our refugees and our missing and the destruction of our cultural heritage, continues to epitomize the tragedy of Cyprus."
Analysis: Heavy Green Line traffic challenges divided Cyprus
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