Elections in the Palestinian territories would be held on January 9, 2005, said interim Palestine Authority President Rawhi Fattouh, setting the stage for the democratic process in the post-Arafat era.
But the bad old ways die hard. Hours after the announcement on Sunday, gunmen attacked the new chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), Mahmoud Abbas, at a memorial ceremony for Yasser Arafat in Gaza.
Eyewitness reports said the attackers - about 30 members of the PLO's own Fatah movement - shouted anti-Abbas slogans, calling him an "American agent."
Cabinet minister Saeb Erekat, reached by telephone, told United Press International: "This was not an attempt to assassinate Abbas. The gunmen were firing into the air."
However, two of Abbas' bodyguards were killed in the shootout, and Arab journalists who were present said the main target was clearly the Palestinian leader, who was saved only because some of his bodyguards pushed him to the floor.
Whether the purpose was to kill Abbas or merely to frighten him, the attack was an ominous start to the process that some hope will lead to stability and peace in the troubled region.
More violence is on the way, according to the Israeli army chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Moshe Ya'alon. He had earlier warned the Israeli cabinet that "a new wave of terrorist attacks" - as the Israeli government spokesman put it - by Fatah renegades and Islamic militants was likely in an attempt to undermine and perhaps derail the moderate Palestinian leadership.
Rumored tensions within Fatah are likely to surface this week when the central committee begins the process of choosing its presidential candidate. Once nominated the candidate will then have to be approved by the party as a whole in what Erekat described as "a kind of primary."
Abbas has the support of the older generation of Fatah members, many of whom came to the West Bank and Gaza with Arafat following the signing of the 1993 Oslo peace accord. But Abbas is unpopular with the younger generation of the more militant-inclined Fatah members born under Israeli occupation. His image is not improved by the Bush administration's public seal of approval, and by the fact that the Israelis say that they can "do business with him."
Whoever is elected president of the Palestinian Authority faces two challenges: to bring good governance and democracy to his people, and to advance the peace process. The man who many think has the best chance to unite Fatah, tough it out with the Islamic militants to end the terror attacks and establish a ceasefire, and eventually "sell" a peace plan to the Palestinians happens to be in an Israeli prison serving five consecutive life terms after being convicted of involvement in attacks that killed five people.
Recent polls showed that Marwan Barghouti was the second-most popular Palestinian politician after Yasser Arafat. His wife, Fadwa, was recently quoted as saying that Barghouti is being urged by some Fatah members and others to run for the presidency from jail.
A strong supporter of the Oslo accord and of the two-state solution based on 1967 borders, Barghouti has not revealed what he plans to do.
The Israelis, on the other hand, have made clear what he is not going to do in the foreseeable future, and that is walk the streets of the West Bank a free man. Last week Israeli foreign minister Silvan Shalom said that Barghouti's release was "out of the question."
Still, observers familiar with Middle East politics do not rule Barghouti as a possible candidate, in or out of jail.
The militant Islamic group Hamas on Monday said it had no interest in participating in the presidential elections. Following Arafat's death, Hamas had called for a unified government drawn from all parties, but Fatah had rejected the proposal. As a result, relations between Hamas and the ruling party remain strained, and the Islamists continue to pose a strategic threat not only to the new administration but also to the peace process.
With Hamas on the sidelines, the main challenge to Fatah comes from the democratic alternative groups, notably the Palestinian National Initiative. Its leader and possible presidential candidate, Mustafa Barghouti (a relative of Marwan), says Fatah is stacking the deck in its own favor by limiting the actual election campaign period to between December 27 and January 8.
"The [Abbas] regime is trying to keep itself in power," Mustafa Barghouti told UPI. "They suffered a serious blow with the death of Yasser Arafat, and they're doing everything they can to limit the changes. It's very clear that they are rushing things. The law says elections within 60 days, but at the same time you can organize them better."
Mustafa Barghouti, who describes himself as "well-known as a moderate," says that to have real political impact the presidential elections will need to be followed by parliamentary elections (the last ones were in 1996), but a date for them has yet to be announced.
The elections are, of course, only one of the new Palestinian team's priorities.
"The most difficult and immediate challenge is to maintain law and order and to prevent the collapse of Palestinian Authority institutions," says Khalil Shikaki, director of the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.
Other pressing problems include putting together "a ceasefire package" and reforming the security services.
But little of this is possible unless Abbas and the leadership can forge a coalition with Fatah's young guard to halt the widening rift in Arafat's old power base.
Meanwhile, the Israelis remain "bemused and wary" - as one Western diplomat said - as they watch developments. Assi Shariv, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's spokesman, told UPI: "We can only wait and see what happens. Abu Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas' nom-de-guerre] needs to take control quickly. Of course we know these men, but it's different now. They don't have big brother watching what they do."
The Western diplomat said the Israelis could help preparations for the elections by speeding up procedures at checkpoints and easing some of the restrictions on movement. Labor Party leader Shimon Peres says Arafat's death presents an opportunity, "and history calls upon us to seize it."
Peres calls for speeding up the disengagement (the Israeli word for unilateral withdrawal) from Gaza and other West Bank settlements because "the map of settlements does not fit into the map of peace." The Palestinians should "abandon completely the path of terror."
But the Sharon government is not ready to make any concessions. Sharon has ordered key departments to conduct a study on the implications of the changes in the Palestinian situation.
"But there is no specific timetable for completing it," added Shariv.
Post-Arafat starts with bang
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