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Events in Syria Can Affect Lebanon
By MIDDLE EAST TIMES
Published: October 06, 2008
THE LEBANON HEADACHE -- Syrian domination of Lebanon would solve both Syria's and Israel's problems, at least as far as terrorism coming from Lebanon is concerned. File photo of a U.S. Patriot anti-aircraft missile system deployed in the central part of Israel. (Photo ITAR-TASS via Nescom)
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Terrorism in Syria is indeed rare, but in just the last 10 days the country has experienced a number of unexplained explosions associated with terrorist activities. The government in Damascus remains tight-lipped as ever, though statements made by Syrian President Bashar Assad allude to the origins of those attacks emanating from Salafist groups based in northern Lebanon.

Such statements raise red flags in neighboring Lebanon where the Lebanese are starting to worry about Syria's intentions; fears accentuated by the deployment by Damascus of more than 10,000 troops backed by armor and rotary wing aircraft.

There are good reasons for the Lebanese to worry about a new Syrian invasion of their country. The weakness of the Lebanese state and its inability to control its own internal security is making both its neighbors, Syria and Israel, very nervous.

The proliferation of Salafist groups, particularly in northern Lebanon, poses a threat to Syria while the presence of a strong Hezbollah in the southern part of the country threatens the security of Israel.

Meanwhile, Washington is too pre-occupied with its worst financial crisis ever and the presidential elections only a month away to devote much time to worry about problems in the Levant.

Some analysts fear Washington could decide to "outsource" the Lebanon dossier to Syria.

While the recent meeting in New York between U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem should be welcomed as a sign that the George W. Bush administration is finally changing its inane policy of stonewalling Damascus, some Middle East observers fear it might not augur well for Lebanon.

Syrian domination of Lebanon would solve both Syria's and Israel's problems, at least as far as terrorism coming from Lebanon is concerned.

The reason for this is easy to understand. With Syria in charge of Lebanon's security, Israel would have a return address on any terrorist activities coming across its northern border. Damascus would be liable to retaliation and would therefore do everything in its power to ensure that Hezbollah followed the new guidelines.

Whereas with Hezbollah in charge of its own security in south Lebanon, retaliation, as was well demonstrated during the Second Lebanon War two summers ago, is futile.

The Lebanese who tend to see conspiracy theories on every street corner have continuously placed the blame for all their ills on everyone else but themselves: Israel, the United States, the CIA, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, etc. It is true that all the above do play a role in Lebanese politics, but only insofar as Lebanese politicians allow themselves to be easily manipulated and continue to pledge their loyalty to powers outside their borders.

Magida al-Roumi, one of Lebanon's most famous songstresses, recently berated her country's politicians, holding them responsible for the mayhem that has plagued Lebanon for the greater part of three decades. Speaking at a memorial service commemorating the assassination of Gebran Tueni, editor of An-Nahar, Lebanon's most influential newspaper, Roumi screamed at them: "Thirty years," she lamented. "Thirty years during which time you have been unable to put a stop to this madness."

In all likelihood Lebanon will continue to live in chaos and insecurity as long as the Lebanese, regardless of political or religious affiliations, continue to place the interests of Tehran, Damascus, Riyadh, Paris or Washington ahead of their own.

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