We do not issue this warning lightly, the prospective Republican presidential candidate has surrounded himself with figures like Norman Podhoretz, the "godfather" of neo-conservatism and strident advocate of the disastrous war in Iraq and Daniel Pipes, whose militancy toward many Muslim groups is well known. But the cold figures of recent polling developments cannot be ignored.
Sen. McCain, R-Ariz., closed the gap in his polling figures with Sen. Obama, D-Ill., during the very weeks when the U.S. mainstream media were most actively singing Obama's praises during his triumphal progress across the Middle East and Western Europe.
In the past month, pollsters such as the highly respected John Zogby have noted a 12 percent reversal in support from Obama to McCain and the latest Gallup poll figures show Obama gained no "bounce" or improvement in his approval figures at all from his choice of Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as his vice presidential running mate.
Now, the current Democratic National Convention in Denver has turned into an exercise in nostalgia and party sentiment rather than a focused offensive to win back the Executive Branch of the U.S. government from the Republican Party.
The showcasing of dying Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., and of Sen. Obama's wife Michelle the first night played into the hands of GOP strategists trying to portray the Democratic standard-bearer as a far leftist out of touch with the values of Middle America. And as we write this, former President Bill Clinton and his wife, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y. whom Obama defeated narrowly for the Democratic presidential nomination, are both scheduled to dominate separate nights of the convention.
If this is the way Obama caves in before rivals he defeated in his own party, how can he be expected show himself tougher against the tough and feisty McCain?
Politics is the art of the possible in dealing with complex realities, however unpleasant or unwished for they may be. Therefore governments in our region studying the progress of the U.S. presidential campaign this summer would be well advised to prepare their diplomatic initiatives and ranges of potential personal contacts whom they may expect to have to deal with in the event of a McCain victory.
We say this neither lightly nor with any air of inevitability: The U.S. presidential campaign still has more than two months to run and as the late British Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously said, "A week is a long time in politics."
Nevertheless, Obama has been losing ground at a rate inconceivable only a few weeks ago. And he has yet to prove that he can regain the momentum and enthusiasm he enjoyed only a short time ago. We hope he can do it. But in case he can't, the foreign ministries of the region should prepare to deal with a different administration … then again, as McCain's critics say -- a third Bush administration.