The repercussions of the latest conflict in the Caucasus -- a good example of shoddy leadership on the part of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili -- will impact not only countries in the immediate region in their dealings with the Russians and with the United States, but the local opposition against Georgian and Russian troops will also affect the Middle East, as well as U.S.-Russian relations.
Chances are that years from now, when they analyze the short-lived war between Russia and Georgia, political scientists will conclude that this was an event that helped alter the course of history.
How exactly the course of events will be changed is still to be written, as is the final chapter in this particular debacle. However what will emerge is that the period when the United States enjoyed unilateral policy-making power in the Middle East is now ended. Russia is back and former Soviet clients, like Syria, have not wasted time letting Moscow know that Russia's presence and support in the Middle East has been sorely missed.
In retrospect, the loss of Washington's absolute influence in the Middle East can only be blamed on Washington itself, or rather on the absurd foreign policy followed by the administration of President George W. Bush. The strategy is to shun and alienate key countries in the Middle East, such as Syria and Iran; to punish them by refusing to acknowledge them, negotiate with them, or do business with them. This strategy has turned out to be self-defeating in the long run, and has quite naturally and unsurprisingly thrown Damascus and Tehran right into Moscow's arms.
Is the situation repairable? Yes, but only if the White House undertakes immediate action to right its many wrongs. But that does not seem to be the pertinent question. The pertinent question is: Will the Bush administration want to spend the effort and resources to fix it?