But Iraq and Afghanistan show no such promise of eventual success. Or do they? The great economist John Maynard Keynes once remarked, "When the facts change, I change my opinion. What, Sir, do you do?"

The facts are changing in Iraq. Five years after the war overthrew the regime of Saddam Hussein, the prospects for the future of Iraq now look very different. The change began with the Sunni awakening and the rejection of al-Qaida by more and more of the Sunni tribes. Then came the surge – the U.S. troop reinforcement that allowed U.S. forces to take the offensive against the various militias.

Then came two more unexpected developments.

The first was that Iran began to scale back its support for the anti-American operations inside Iraq and urge its Shiite allies to join the forces of stabilization. The second was that Prime Minister Maliki suddenly began to act like a real leader. Although widely derided at the time, Maliki's decision to send the Iraqi army into Basra to unseat the power of the local militias proved to be decisive. First, after a bumpy beginning and a great deal of U.S. and British support, it worked. Iraqi forces now control Basra.

Second, Maliki as a Shiite premier was seen to have started his offensive against Shiite militias. That is to say, he acted like a prime minister of all Iraqis and not as a Shiite partisan.

This week, Iraq's largest Sunni parliamentary bloc, the National Concord Front, announced that it would rejoin Prime Minister Maliki's cabinet after boycotting it for almost a year. This brings back the broad-based, popularly elected national government in time for the multi-party, secret ballot, regional elections later this year.

The bombings and the killings continue, on a much smaller scale. But there are now real signs of change and stabilization. Armed attacks have fallen by 70 percent in the last year, from 180 to 45 a day.

Iraq has met all but three of the 18 benchmarks set by the U.S. Congress last year to assess security, political and economic progress, the U.S. Embassy claimed this week, Serious tasks remain: to enact and implement laws sharing the oil wealth; disarming the militias; and reforming the civilian police. But the progress is palpable.

Above all, with oil at $140 a barrel, Iraq is now pumping more oil than it did under Saddam Hussein. There is enough wealth for all Iraqis. The facts in Iraq are changing, but it may be too late for U.S. opinion to notice.