The recent resurgence of large-scale violence tells another story and puts into question the policy applied so far. From the Easter Sunday rocket and mortar attack on the fortress-like Green Zone, to the mini-war being waged between Moqtada Sadr's Mahdi Army and pro-government forces, recent developments give reason to believe that the mission is still very far from being accomplished. For every surge forward by the coalition in trying to bring about a similitude of democracy in the country, forces opposed to the U.S. efforts have come up with just as effective counter-measures.

Reviewing the last five years, the conflict in Iraq resembles a morbid tango: one step forward and two steps back.

It's high time to look at who stands to gain from the mayhem in Iraq, other than the Islamist extremists, the cashiered members of Saddam Hussein's military, former Baathists and the odd collection of several thousands jihadists vying for a chance to fight American soldiers in an Arab country. In that regard all fingers appear to be pointing at Iran, whose influence in neighboring Iraq is growing steadily.

It took the Iranian revolution 30 years to break out of its confinement, but now Tehran seems to be on a roll. Consider the following:

1. Iraq: The Islamic republic is making huge strides in post Saddam Hussein Iraq, where the mullahs in Tehran enjoy the loyalty of multiple militias;

2. Iran has entered into a number of agreements with Syria, from military cooperation pacts to commercial exchanges;

3. Expanding its influence beyond its borders and those of neighboring Iraq the Iranians have offered practically unlimited support in equipment, finances and training to the Shiite Lebanese Hezbollah organization. Indirectly, this gives Tehran a say in Lebanese politics; and,

4. Similarly, Tehran has been providing help and support to Hamas in the Palestinian territories.

Indeed, when looking at the situation in the Middle East today, Tehran has never been in a stronger position. In Iraq it holds a great advantage over the United States given that the Islamic republic is not concerned by the same four-year electoral cycle by which U.S. politics lives.

In befriending the Syrians at a time when Damascus was shunned by Washington, the mullahs in Tehran have found a strategic ally. Washington can still break the mold by initializing talks with Damascus rather than leave the Syrians out in the cold, where they will find a sympathetic ear in Iran.