A responsible U.S. administration would seek to prevent yet another bloody and dangerous cycle of violence breaking out by bringing major pressure to bear on both the Israelis and Hamas – the Islamic Resistance Movement – in Gaza before the situation got any worse. This, of course, would involve engaging governments such as Iran and Syria that support Hamas instead of pretending they do not exist, or can simply be ignored as influences on the Palestinians.
A responsible White House would engage Hamas directly with both carrots and sticks. And it would not hesitate to send out its heaviest diplomatic big guns in the person of the secretary of state to do it. But it is easier to simply abandon all serious efforts to engage, influence and deter Hamas and pretend to be "tough," even though the only result of this policy is to give Hamas a free hand to further consolidate its iron grip on Gaza and its rising influence on the West Bank.
Pressure in Israel to launch ever more serious military operations against impoverished and densely populated Gaza is bound to grow as long as the wave of bombardments by Qassam rockets and – now – by Grad multiple launch rocket systems against targets in and around the neighboring Israeli city of Ashkelon continues to escalate. Yet there is no sign so far that the White House contemplates reigning in the Israelis in any firm decisive way to prevent such a dangerous development.
When U.S. President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice convened the Annapolis peace conference in Maryland late last year, we welcomed the long-overdue initiative but warned about what we feared was a lack of seriousness and intelligent commitment to follow through on all the flowery speeches and smiling photo opportunities.
Unfortunately, our fears are now being realized. The Bush administration failed to act decisively in early 2001 to nip the Second Palestinian Intifada in the bud or to prevent the bloody cycle of retaliatory attacks that then Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon responded to it with. The administration also failed to deter current Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert from launching his bungled, entirely counter-productive drive against Hezbollah, the Shiite Party of God in southern Lebanon in July 2006. Now, the administration looks like sitting back complacently for a third time and giving Olmert and his hard-charging Defense Minister Ehud Barak the green light to launch a major military operation against Gaza.
Bush and his policymakers may believe it is third time lucky. As Yogi Berra, and any other veteran of American baseball could have taught them – a better metaphor would be – "Three strikes and you're out."
