The prerequisites for a generalized Middle East flare-up are gradually falling into place. Relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria have reached a breaking point, with Riyadh accusing Damascus of preventing the free election of Lebanon's president. In the Gaza Strip Israel is threatening an all-out assault in retaliation for Hamas' shelling of Israeli population centers, dashing hopes by U.S. President George W. Bush of reaching a settlement to the Palestinian crisis before he leaves office in little more than 320 days. And the United States is perceived as reverting to gunboat diplomacy in the Mediterranean.

Adding to the tension between Saudi Arabia and Syria, after Riyadh withdrew its ambassador from Damascus, comes a report that the Saudi kingdom and Kuwait are advising their nationals to leave Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia has been trying to press Syria to accept a consensus that would break the deadlock in the Lebanese political situation. Damascus is backing the Lebanese opposition, which demands a majority in the next government that would allow it to veto any decisions deemed harmful to Damascus. Saudi Arabia is now calling for an emergency Arab summit, to convene as early as next week, after its efforts to mediate in the Lebanese crisis failed to produce concrete results.

Meanwhile, deployment of U.S. battleships – including the USS Cole – to the eastern Mediterranean has brought criticism from both supporters and opponents of U.S. policy in the region.

The deployment of U.S. warships off the Lebanese coast raises the specter of previous U.S. military and political miscalculations in the region. Memories are still fresh in the minds of many Lebanese, when in 1983 the USS New Jersey pounded Muslim forces using its 16-inch guns. At the end of the day the damage caused by the New Jersey was more political, leaving U.S. foreign policy far more vulnerable than the militias.

It increased the spiral of aggression against the U.S. Marines serving with the multinational force, leading to the suicide truck bombing of the U.S. and French military barracks in Beirut and the killing of 241 U.S. servicemen and 58 French troops. This eventually led to the withdrawal of the multinational force from Lebanon.

Syria, through the voice of its foreign minister, Walid al-Moualem, said force would not solve Lebanon's political problems. "Those Lebanese who are betting on the United States flexing its muscles will be disappointed. Washington cannot impose the solution it wants. The way out has to be based on a Lebanese consensus," Moualem told reporters.

Precisely.

The way out of the Lebanese crisis should be based on a Lebanese consensus, as the Syrian minister so well pointed out. However, a Lebanese consensus must not be misinterpreted to mean a Damascus diktat.