They should have won much wider appreciation, for what they suggest is that Arab birth rates in general are dropping dramatically, and that the number of births among women under the age of 20 is dropping even more sharply. Overwhelmingly, the only places in the world where high birth rates are still the norm are in sub-Saharan Africa, and in Central America, and in two Arab countries: Yemen and the Palestinian territories.

The U.N. figures assess the total fertility rate, or TFR, the average number of children born to women of childbearing age. The world's highest TFR is in Niger, at 7.2. The lowest is in Hong Kong, with 1.

A level of 2.1 is required to keep a population stable. Anything less, and the population is likely to decline. The population of a country with a TFR of 1.3 may be expected to halve in 45 years.

Some Arab countries, notably Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Lebanon, are either below or very close to that stability level of 2.1. Algeria and Morocco, at 2.4, are dropping fast toward it. Some other Islamic countries are also in this zone of population stability or decline, including Turkey (2.1), and Indonesia (2.2). Iran is listed at 2.0, below replacement level, but even more recent data suggests that Iran's real rate is around 1.7, according to the latest CIA Fact book. Some scholars put it even lower.

The figures for adolescent fertility in the Middle East are even more striking. The world's highest birthrate among adolescents is in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with 222 births per year among teenage girls. In Britain, it is 24, which is higher than the number of such births in Algeria (7), Morocco (19), Oman (10), Kuwait (13), Qatar (17) the UAE (18) and Tunisia (7). While Jordan (25) and Saudi Arabia (28) are close to the British level.

Demographers in France have already refuted some of the wilder predictions of high birth rates among Muslim immigrants leading to "the cathedral of Notre Dame becoming a mosque by the end of this century." The birthrate of mothers of North African origin drops to the local norm within two generations. Now it seems that the birthrate of Muslim and Arab women who did not emigrate is plummeting in a similar fashion.

These figures carry important implications for the future of education and training, for industrial strategy, and investment policy in the Middle East. They also mean that by the middle of this century, the Middle Eastern countries will start to worry about the same growing numbers of elderly pensioners and shrinking number of tax-paying workers that now alarm Europe and threaten to undermine its welfare states. Demography is indeed destiny.