Regardless of your political affiliation or your religious beliefs there can be little argument that the unfortunate events which unfolded in Lebanon this past week will not contribute in making the country or the region any safer. By resorting to violence and choosing the bullet over the ballot the Lebanese opposition, spearheaded by Hezbollah and egged on by Syria and Iran may have won the battle, but they certainly will not win the war. History has shown that one group can only impose its philosophy on others for a limited time. In the end democracy will prevail.

Let there be no doubt about what is at stake in the recent violence that has flared up in Lebanon between the pro-Western government and the pro-Iranian and pro-Syrian opposition forces led by the Shiite movement Hezbollah.

The 60th anniversary of Israels founding has understandably focused much of the attention of Middle Eastern analysts on this old and familiar problem. But if they think this remains the prime security issue for the region, they may be looking in the wrong direction.

"The only way that Pakistan is going to be able to fight terrorism effectively is to have a legitimate, democratically-elected, secular government that can rally the Pakistani people to engage al-Qaida, the Taliban, and other extremist movements." These were the words of Bruce Riedel, a regional expert who served in both the Bush senior and Clinton administrations, last December.

A combination of apparently unrelated events this week have confirmed the writing is on the wall for Americas long-term military commitment in Iraq.

It is probably very difficult, maybe even quite impossible, for the majority of us mere mortals to fully understand the sheer pressure imposed on politicians as they campaign for an election, let alone the strain on the candidates and their staff when running for the job of most powerful man on earth, a job which might very well go to a woman at the next U.S. election.

Most of us who use computers receive hundreds of unsolicited emails every day, some promising instant wealth and fortune in exchange for our banking details; others guarantee us heavenly pleasures on earth for a handful of dollars. But every so often along comes a real gem, as was the case last week when a good friend – and for the record, a Republican – had the good sense to forward a short video clip made by a friend of his. The video is titled "How to be a real terrorist!" And of course it grabbed my attention. The clip shows a middle-aged American talking straight into the camera with something of a very soft southern drawl. Heres what he says:

Europeans should take seriously the warning this week against seeking to impose restrictions on Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) investments. It came from Sultan bin Sulayem, the head of Dubai World and follows a similar warning by the Kuwait Investment Authority against the European Union proposal for an SWF code of conduct.

Peacemaking in the Middle East is frustrating to say the least. Ideal for those seeking lifelong employment, it is usually a heartbreaker for results-oriented types. Yet perhaps frustration with the current state of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has prompted the feelers currently being put out between Israel and Syria.

There is some entertainment value when former government officials fall out with each other, and this is now happening to President George W. Bush and former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

He was the Eight of Spades on the Pentagons playing cards list of the 55 most-wanted men of Saddams regime. Tariq Aziz, the public face of Saddam Husseins dictatorial clique, goes on trial today in Baghdad, accused for his participation, yet to be proven however, in the execution of 42 merchants in 1992.

Syrian Ambassador to Washington Imad Mustapha spoke last Friday with reporters for more than an hour about the nature of the target of Israels Sept. 6, 2007 airborne attack on what the United States and Israel say was a nuclear processing facility being built with the help of the north Koreans.

The U.S. government is accusing Damascus of attempting to develop a secret nuclear program. Syria denies any such intent. Does the scenario sound all to familiar? It should.

Assume for a moment that Haroldo Lima, the head of Brazils National Petroleum Agency, is right in his claim that a new offshore oilfield of some 33 billion barrels has been found under the Atlantic Ocean near Rio de Janeiro. Called the Carioca field, it would be the worlds third largest. It follows the discovery last year of the 8 billion barrel Tupi field, also offshore, and in February the finding of a massive new gasfield called Jupiter.

It would make sense for the U.S. government to open up an initially low-level line of communications with Hamas in Gaza and even with Tehran. (It would have been vastly better if either President Bill Clinton or President George W. Bush had had the wisdom to start such a dialog when Muhammad Khatami was president of Iran. But they both seemed determined to throw that opportunity away.)

The killing of two members of the Lebanese Phalange (Kataeb) Party in Zahle city has contributed to reviving fears that a civil war in Lebanon may ignite at any moment. Indeed, this latest incident brings back the specter of similar events that eventually led to the 1975-1990 civil war.

In the days and weeks to come former U.S. President Jimmy Carter will face an onslaught of criticism and verbal attacks for his weekend escapade to Damascus where he met the Hamas leadership. Carter hopes his efforts will nudge forward the tattered peace process while at the same time help pull the hand-break on what appears to be a runaway locomotive rushing headlong into a revival of violence.

The general belief is that the United States has been fighting two wars, in Afghanistan and Iraq, for seven and five years, respectively. But there is a third war that has been raging for the last 25 years. That war began on April 18, 1983 when a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden van into the U.S. Embassy in Beirut bringing down the entire front façade of the multistoried building, killing 68 people – among them 17 Americans.

One of the constant warning themes of annual reports on the Arab world published by the United Nations Development Program has been the danger of cultural isolation.

The wave of attacks across Iraq Tuesday by al-Qaida and its affiliates that killed some 60 people should have come as no surprise to U.S. policymakers - but no doubt they did.

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter is coming under much criticism from Israel and its supporters for expressing his desire to meet with Hamas officials during his Middle East tour this week. One would think that by now, 60 years into the Arab-Israeli conflict, and a stack of wars later, most people would come to realize that there can be no military solution to the crisis. 0nly a negotiated settlement will put an end to the decades fighting and bloodshed.

Theres something happening here. What it is aint exactly clear. Theres a man with a gun over there, Telling me I got to beware....

The news from the Middle East is bad almost everywhere. Iran is tripling its number of centrifuges for processing nuclear fuel. Egypts municipal elections have seen independent poll monitors arrested amid boycott calls and a very low turnout. And then there are new rumors of military confrontation over Lebanon, with Syria reinforcing its troops in the Bekaa Valley, extraordinary civil defense exercises in Israel, and American warships off the Lebanese coast.

Condoleezza Rice, the U.S. secretary of state told the Middle East Times a couple of weeks ago that she thought the problems in Iraq would be hard but not as hard as they turned out to be. Still Iraqs challenges must pale against those she faces in trying to make peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

U.S. ground forces in Iraq are held hostage to long and vulnerable supply lines up from Kuwait and the Gulf, all controlled by Shiite militias strongly sympathetic to the Islamic republic in neighboring Iran. Iran has quietly and consistently built up its ties to both these groups and to the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki which has developed a mind of its own quite unanticipated by the Bush administration strategists. It is impossible to believe that the White House looked with any kind of approval on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejads unprecedented visit to Baghdad as Malikis guest. Yet the visit went ahead anyway.

Throughout the 60 years of percolating Arab-Israeli conflict both sides have found it easier to declare war – or as the case may be, to wage war without bothering to declare it – rather than to declare peace.

Since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 much has been said and written about spreading democracy in the Middle East. U.S. President George W. Bush thought that democracy would somehow come about automatically after the fall of Saddam, almost by reverse osmosis. It would have helped the president and his team to have done a track history check of the turnover of leaders in the region.

This weeks NATO summit in Bucharest seemed at first sight to have only limited relevance to the Middle East. But behind the headlines and just beneath the surface there are trends and portents that suggest the Atlantic Alliance is becoming steadily more integrated into the security architecture of the region.

"Be careful what you wish for … you may get it," might be the mantra running through the minds of U.S. foreign policy officials as they prepare to deal with Pakistans new government.

How far away the smiling photo-opportunities of the Annapolis peace conference now seem. Less than half a year after a bouncy Condoleezza Rice played princess of peace with all the exuberant enthusiasm of her college cheerleader days, the U.S. secretary of state has just returned home after being humiliated by an Israeli prime minister as no visiting American statesman ever has been before.

It is high time for the Arab League to take a good deep look at itself to see what it has been able to accomplish since its founding, then weigh its successes versus its failures.

The Middle East is facing a triple water crisis. The first problem – the lack of water in many parts of the Middle East – has in part been at the root of much of the Arab-Israeli dispute over the past 60 years. The Arab-Israeli conflict is not just about land; its also about water. Much as the land, there is only so much water to go around.

Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential candidate in November, is a man known for his frankness, particularly in long discussions with journalists aboard his "Straight Talk Express" campaign bus. And one of his most candid statements has been to admit that without the apparent success of the surge of U.S. military reinforcements in Iraq, the McCain campaign would be lost.

It seems to be getting harder to predict where the war in Iraq is heading; from the premature declaration of "Mission Accomplished" by U.S. President George W. Bush five years ago delivered in great pomp and circumstance aboard an aircraft carrier, to the more recent "surge" of U.S. forces on the ground which, along with a huge financial compensation package given to Sunni tribesmen, helped turn the tide of the war – albeit temporarily.

The current fighting between rival Shiite militias in Basra, the strategically crucial Iraqi port at the head of the Persian Gulf, is simultaneously of vital importance and exceptionally confusing to outsiders unfamiliar with the fractured chaos that Iraq has become. But it still should teach sobering, as yet unlearned policy lessons to U.S. leaders.

When planning the war in Iraq, Messrs George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were counting on two things: either a short, quick victory, which they thought they had managed to achieve when U.S.-led coalition forces reached Baghdad in record time.

The inflammable condition of the Palestinian territories is reaching explosive levels and unless a substantial breakthrough in the dormant peace process is realized, massive violence can be expected. Uncontrollable events may take place, even beyond their borders, if the growing frustration of Israelis and Palestinians is not stemmed.

The Europeans are baffling. What is an Arab who studies Europe supposed to make of a continent where the Swiss foreign minister this week was condemned in her own country for the courtesy of wearing a veil when she visited her Iranian counterpart?

Much has been said and written about the war in Iraq now going into its sixth year. Theres been countless debates questioning whether it was right or wrong to invade and topple the regime, as corrupt as it was. On the casualty side we know that the United States suffered about 4,000 fatalities and somewhere around 60,000 men and women serving in the armed forces were wounded. The long-term effect of some of the trauma experienced by combat troops is still to be counted. That will come down the road some years from today.

Two news reports Wednesday document the Bush administrations unfortunate continued blindness, one might even call it delusional thinking, on Iraq.

Part of the Gaza dilemma is that both the United States and Israel pretend that Hamas does not exist, refusing to engage its officials in peace talks on the basis that it is a terrorist organization. They even refused to recognize that Hamas was legitimately elected after it beat its rival, Fatah, the party of Palestinian President Mahamoud Abbas, in free and fair elections.

Mao Zedong, the architect of the Chinese communist revolution and author of multiple texts of military tactics (among other topics), wrote in his "Little Red Book" that the first step in defeating ones enemy is to know him. Mao was repeating what Sun Tzu, author of "The Art of War," wrote six centuries before the birth of Jesus Christ.

As the oil price clambered above the once-unthinkable level of $110 a barrel, the oil-rich countries of the Middle East are now confronted with two familiar questions and one even more familiar dilemma. They are all familiar because the rules of the market never fundamentally change. And as legendary Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Yamani used to say: "The Stone Age did not end because the world ran out of stones. It ended because it became cheaper and simpler to develop metals and bricks and cements."

The sudden resignation of Adm. William Fallon, the top U.S. military commander for the Middle East, a command encompassing Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as Iran, has prompted speculation that the Bush administration may be planning a military strike on Iran.

It appears all too typical of U.S. President George W. Bush that when he finally stumbles inadvertently on a wise, experienced strategic thinker for a high command position he moves quickly to fire him.

With time rapidly running out on the U.S. administration – 314 days before the next president is sworn into office – President George W. Bush is beginning to feel the urgency in trying to bring about a negotiated settlement in the Middle East. The fireman being sent to douse the flames is none other than the vice president of the United States, Dick Cheney.

If you want a clear understanding of the explosive situation in Gaza take a look at a most informative report by the American Task Force on Palestine published last week. The report titled, "What Lies Ahead for Gaza?" is a must read.

Now that the race for the Democratic Partys presidential nomination has been dramatically re-opened by Hillary Clintons victories in the Ohio and Texas primaries, the policy differences between them will come under intensive new scrutiny.

To understand what is happening with the Gaza Strip and why it is happening one needs only to look at a simple kitchen utensil: a pressure cooker with a malfunctioning release vent. Eventually the pot will explode.

There is a depressing sense of familiarity about U.S. policy – or the lack of it – on the current escalating crisis in Gaza. Over the past seven years, we have been here so often before. As the great New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra famously said – "Its déjà vu all over again."

The battle for the hearts and minds of the Arab world, as well as for their airwaves, is intensifying and will no doubt result in fierce competition following the announcement Monday by the British Broadcasting Corporation of the launch of its Arabic television news channel, set to go live on March 11.

The prerequisites for a generalized Middle East flare-up are gradually falling into place. Relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria have reached a breaking point, with Riyadh accusing Damascus of preventing the free election of Lebanons president. In the Gaza Strip Israel is threatening an all-out assault in retaliation for Hamas shelling of Israeli population centers, dashing hopes by U.S. President George W. Bush of reaching a settlement to the Palestinian crisis before he leaves office in little more than 320 days. And the United States is perceived as reverting to gunboat diplomacy in the Mediterranean.

It may have been a coincidence that Saudi Arabia decided to end its highly-subsidized production of wheat in the same week that wheat prices in U.S. futures markets hit a whopping $24 a bushel. The price of wheat has doubled already this year, and risen from just $3 a bushel four years ago.

When the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran judged with "high confidence" last December that Tehran had halted its nuclear weapons programs back in 2003, much of the world breathed a sigh of relief. It meant that the Bush presidency would almost certainly not end with a bang – a bang produced by an attack against Irans nuclear facilities.

After successfully defying Israel over the past quarter century, Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement that now controls Gaza, is now confidently defying the American hyper power as well.

Remember the movie comedy, "Groundhog Day" starring Bill Murray who was stuck in the same day, day after day after day, for weeks on end, until he reformed and was then able to move forward? What brings this to mind is the announcement by Ralph Nader that he was running for the presidency as an independent candidate – again and again and again and again and again – thats correct, for the fifth time.

Shortly after some 700,000 Palestinians oozed through 15 openings blasted by explosives in a seven-mile border barrier erected by Israel between Gaza and Egypt in late January, we speculated in this very space the predicament Israel would face if Hamas were to repeat the exercise a few weeks later, only next time targeting crossing points into Israel.

Israel has enjoyed three critical advantages in its 60-year confrontation with its Arab neighbors. First, it has enjoyed unity of command, while the Arabs were so often divided. Second, it has chosen its allies and arms suppliers well, from France in the 1950s and 1960s to the United States for the past 40 years. And most important of all, Israel has always enjoyed the technological edge that came from a modernized economy and world-class research and university base.

Should the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza follow the example of Kosovo and unilaterally declare their independence? The idea is being floated by Yasser Abed Rabbo, a senior aide to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Indeed, Kosovo has established a precedent which has many countries with ethnic minorities worried.

If only U.S. President George W. Bush had mistaken the Middle East for Africa we might all be a lot happier and more secure.

It is clear that the security situation is going south in Afghanistan, a country many coalition countries want to shield their troops from. Attacks against civilians and U.S.-led coalition forces are on the increase. The Taliban, believed to have been routed shortly after the war began in 2001, appear to be making a comeback.

Six years ago the United Nations Development Program published a remarkably frank and revealing survey, written by a group of Arab intellectuals, which concluded that the Arab world was suffering from a deficit of democracy, of education, of womens rights and of free debate. There have been a number of striking improvements since. Which together suggest that there are real prospects for socio-economic and political reform in the Arab world. Economic growth is taking off in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and in the Gulf.

Pakistanis go to the polls next week, Feb. 18 in an election of great importance for a country where instability can have global repercussions. Just last month, Spanish police arrested 14 suspects in a bomb plot. All were Pakistani or of Pakistani descent, as were the perpetrators of the 2005 London subway bombings, who attended training camps in Pakistan.

What seemed inconceivable a couple of months ago is now taking place before our eyes: Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois is now moving decisively ahead of Sen. Hillary Clinton in the race for the U. S. Democratic Partys presidential nomination, and opinion polls even show him holding a small but significant lead over the likely Republican presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

Addressing a gathering at the National Press Club Monday, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad requested help from the international community in "making the difficult decisions of today for a prosperous and peaceful tomorrow."

Monday, Feb. 11 is the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution when followers of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini officially declared the end of the monarchy, turning imperial Iran into the Islamic Republic of Iran. That was 29 years ago.

Dr. Rowan Williams, the spiritual head of the Anglican Church worldwide as Archbishop of Canterbury, has provoked great controversy by suggesting that the introduction of Sharia Islamic law is unavoidable in Britain.

"With one leap he was away." With the shattering of the border barrier between Gaza and Egypt, Hamas, the Islamic Resistance Movement, with one bold but simple, easy and practical move smashed the long, slow, patient supposedly "brilliant" U.S., Israeli and European strategy meant to discredit and eventually topple it.

When we talk about war these days, we tend to think of Iraq and/or Afghanistan, or perhaps our minds dwell on the perpetual Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or possibly the Syrians, or, more recently, Iran. Today, however, we want to bring to your attention a somewhat forgotten war that gets very little mention in the Western media.

By refusing to recognize Hamas as a bona fide interlocutor in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute Washington and Tel Aviv are only strengthening the Islamic Resistance Movement. Much like any revolution, the one brought about by Hamas needs to remain in perpetual motion or see itself die away, as such movements thrive on chaos and political incertitude.

The choice has been whittled down to four candidates in the U.S. presidential race, so their various positions on the outstanding issues of Middle Eastern politics are becoming increasingly important.

Just two days after U.S. President George W. Bush gave his State of the Union address, Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late shah of Iran and heir to the Peacock Throne – in the unlikely event that Iranians ever reinstate the monarchy – delivered his state of the countrys address at Georgetown University.

U.S. President George W. Bush won 70 bursts of applause during his 53-minute State of the Union address on Monday, yet the speech was little more than a danger exercise in fantasy and wish fulfillment.

U.S. President George W. Bush gave his final State of the Union address Monday night where, as expected, he focused on the highlights of his presidency, a presidency which was largely preoccupied in conducting two wars – in Iraq and Afghanistan – and the wider conflict transcending national borders, which the American president calls, "the war on terror."

The crossing of nearly half of Gazas population into Egypt last week in search of food and in defiance of Israels blockade on the Strip brings into question Israels policy of trying to contain – and marginalize – the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas.

Something dramatic is happening to fertility rates in the Middle East. For many years, most analysts and observers have focused on the remarkably high proportion of young people in Arab countries; those under the age of 25. This has provoked some crude commentary on the implications for birth rates and thus for the role of women in those countries. A great deal of that commentary now appears to be wrong-headed, according to new data from the Demographic and Social Statistics unit of the U.N. Statistical Division. Released last month, its findings were largely ignored in the holiday season.

"Dubai S.O.S. Yanks Out" proclaimed the huge banner held aloft in the midst of a chanting crowd of 45,000. This scene took place last Monday, not in Gaza or Ramallah, nor in some Sunni town in Iraq, but in the stands of the Liverpool football club in the north of England.

Even a president of the United States must get used to being defied by his enemies. But it is far more galling to be defied by ones friends. And when a president of the United States on one of his extremely rare visits to the Middle East manages to get humiliatingly defied by Saudi Arabia and Israel on the same trip, something is clearly very wrong somewhere.

The collective punishment that Israel is imposing on the entire population of the Gaza Strip is not the answer to its problem. Collective punishment never is. Not in the long run. Maybe it offers temporary respite from a problem, but disastrous long-term repercussions will surely follow. Instead of getting to the root, Israels punitive action against all Gazans is provoking what it doesnt want: more animosity, more violence.

The Institute of International Finance reported this week that the net foreign assets of the Gulf states stood at $1,800 billion at the end of last year and will almost certainly exceed $2 trillion by January of next year.

U.S. President George W. Bush may have trouble getting things done. He has no such trouble speaking his mind, however tortured the English in which he does so. He was the first American president to speak of a Palestinian state, back in 2001. It is true that he never used the term again until recently, but on his just completed Middle East tour he has been on a roll.

The first thing to say about U.S. President George W. Bushs travels around the region to push the cause of an Israeli-Palestinian peace is that it is extremely welcome: The second thing to say is that it would have been much more welcome had it occurred seven years ago, before 3,000 to 5,000 Palestinians and 1,000 Israelis had lost their lives during the second intifada.

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto late last month summoned a deluge of grief, violence and grim pronouncements. In the West, where her powerful connections, accessibility and graceful sense of style buoyed her status as a media darling despite eight years in exile, many observers used the occasion of the former Pakistani prime ministers death to write the epitaph of Pakistan.

One of the facts of the presidency of George W. Bush is that this president is not a big fan of state dinners, galas and fancy pageantry. So, when a Turkish journalist commented last week that Turkeys President Abdullah Gul, who was on an official visit to Washington, would be having a "quick lunch" with President Bush, the Turkish media translated "quick lunch" as "fast-food."

The mood music for President George W. Bushs Middle East trip was set by three events. The first was his ringing declaration, made in an interview last week with Yediot Ahronot, the Israeli newspaper, that “the time is ripe. There will be a comprehensive peace signed by the end of this year.”

Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are reaching something of a crossroads.

Fouad al-Farhan may not be a household name, but U.S. President George W. Bush is bound to receive more than an earful about the blogger from Saudi Arabia when he visits the kingdom later this week as part of an eight-day Mideast tour that will also take him to Jerusalem, and Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.

It would take a great optimist to expect anything dramatic from U.S. President George W. Bushs eight-day trip to the Middle East that starts next week.

U.S. President George W. Bush leaves Washington next week for an eight-day trip to the Middle East to try and nudge forward the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians launched last November in Annapolis. It is a long trip that will take in Saudi Arabia and three of the Gulf states, as well as Israel and the West Bank.

The Bush administrations policy of backing Benazir Bhutto as the democratic "dream" leader of Pakistan was bound to fail from the beginning: The fact that U.S. President George W. Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Undersecretary of State Paula Dobriansky, for whom "democracy" is a more universal cure-all than aspirin, all embraced Bhutto was bound to make her the Number One target of al-Qaida, especially as she was flaunting Washingtons support in its own backyard.