Yet despite the poor odds, the Bush administration boldly made democracy promotion a central point of its post-Sept. 11, 2001 foreign policy -- thus the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. But in politics, as in many other fields, things have a knack of not turning out as expected or as planned.
For years the Bush administration has been pressing a number of Arab countries to introduce "free and fair elections." Some did. But, it is always worth reminding politicians to be careful what they wish for.
Bush wanted free and fair elections for the Palestinians, the Moroccans, and others in the developing world. Indeed, free and fair elections were held in several countries across North Africa and the Middle East. The trouble (for Bush) is that in most cases the Islamist parties grabbed the majority of the vote with relative ease.
That was the case in the Palestinian territories. Hamas, the Islamist resistance movement, finished with a clear majority – and found itself not only in government, but actually running the government, much to the displeasure of both the Bush administration and the Israelis. Washington and Tel Aviv subsequently refused to recognize the legitimacy of the Hamas government. Following democratic procedures is obviously not enough; the results have to be acceptable to the promoters.
The Hamas leadership followed up by throwing away the book on democracy when they violently expelled their Fatah rivals from the Gaza Strip.
Recent developments in North Africa appear to indicate that the Bush administration might have drawn a lesson from its mishandling of the Hamas affair.
In a special report titled "Engaging Islamists and Promoting Democracy," published by the United States Institute of Peace a couple of months ago, special adviser to the Institute Mona Yacoubian examines this new trend.
"Parliamentary elections across the Middle East have led to a wave of Islamist victories," writes Yacoubian. "Islamist parties typically boast leaders who are young and dynamic, with strong ties to the community. Their party organizations brim with energy and ideas, attracting those who seek change."
The USIP special report has singled out three countries in the region where Islamists won in recent elections: Morocco, Jordan, and Yemen. Despite appearances, the United States has decided to engage the moderate – and legal – Islamists in discreet dialog.
As Yacoubian points out in the USIP report: "Engaging the Islamists successfully through an engagement strategy both empowers individuals and strengthens institutions to yield greater transparency, more accountability, and shifts toward moderation."
In the same vein that one should talk to one's foes, could one hope that perhaps the administration will finally get around to opening a line of dialog with Syria and Iran?