"The United States will monitor and judge the fulfillment of the commitment of both sides of the road map," says the joint Israeli-Palestinian document committing them to pursue a peace deal by the end of next year. Note that potent word, "judge."And note also that while excluding the Russians may be difficult, and excluding the U.N. may be foolish, excluding the EU could carry serious financial consequences.
The EU has long been the main financial supporter for the Palestinians. In 2007, the EU and its 27 member nations gave almost $1.5 billion in mostly humanitarian aid. To help make the Annapolis process work, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said the EU should be prepared to raise another $500 million for job-creation projects. But will it?
Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU's external relations commissioner and Javier Solana, the EU security affairs chief suggest that future EU aid could also be made available for the Palestinian police force and to reform the Palestinians' health, education, and judicial systems. But there are no guarantees.
The EU's money is essential. Former British premier Tony Blair, who represented the Quartet at Annapolis, stressed at a press briefing in Jerusalem: "Without hope of prosperity, rising living standards, and an economic stake in the future for ordinary Palestinians, the politics will never succeed."
The effective sidelining of the Europeans has been noticed. Leila Shahid, the Palestinians' representative in Europe, expressed regret Wednesday that the EU had "dropped out" of the Middle East process "at a time when the Americans are coming back."
There are ominous signs that a kind of compassion fatigue is developing in the EU, after paying so much for so long for so little, and seeing Israeli bombs or Israeli border delays undermine the development it has tried to fund.
"The only role the EU seems to be able to play is that of a milking cow and a builder of projects," notes Barah Mikail of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris. "When the EU builds these projects and Israel destroys them, the EU never takes a firm stance condemning the destruction, so it does not win any respect," he said.
Moreover, the EU has other concerns beyond the Middle East. Between now and Christmas, EU troops could be facing violence in Kosovo (where it has 15,000 soldiers) and in Lebanon (where 8,000 EU troops are the core of the U.N. peace force). It is also poised to send another 4,000 troops to Chad to support the U.N. mission in the neighboring Darfur province of Sudan. Will it have the cash and political will to keep paying the bills in the Middle East, when it has no role in the policy?