For the world's autocratic rulers it's typically all or nothing: they either rule, or they are out. And being out of power usually means there are pretty good chances they will eventually find themselves standing in a courtroom before a judge, whom they very likely had arrested during their regime. There the ex-ruler will face a plethora of human rights abuses.

The strongmen of Pakistan or Myanmar today - just as those who dictated their own political wills and whims, often blended with megalomaniacal self interest, be it in Uganda with Idi Amin Dada, in Iraq with Saddam Hussein or in other countries where dictators still rule - know the alternatives to losing power.

Remaining in their home countries after inflicting so much pain and suffering is nearly impossible. Most dictators know they will be forced into exile, if they are fortunate enough to get away with their lives. Some, like Uganda's Amin, escape. He finished his days in exile in Saudi Arabia. Others, such as Saddam are less fortunate.

The prospect of arrest, jail, a public trial and possibly execution (as with Saddam) is a strong motivation to try to retain power as long as possible.

And so autocrats try to hold on to power, come what may. The period from when they first feel the pressure to their removal from power is usually a time of arrests and crackdowns on opposition politicians; this pattern is an indication that the ruler/junta/military government is getting desperate. Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf is at this point right now.

The one exception to this rule was South Africa, a country that managed to make the transition from apartheid and white rule to black majority without too much violence. Why is that? Because they initiated a countrywide national peace and reconciliation program; one may add, very successfully.

But Pakistan is no South Africa and Musharraf knows it only too well. For him it's the endgame, as he begins to realize he is fighting for his very survival. By dispatching John Negroponte, its seasoned and second-highest ranking diplomat to Islamabad this weekend the Bush administration sent Musharraf a clear message: The United States will stop supporting him politically and the unlimited flow of dollars - $10 billion over the last six years, compliments of the U.S. taxpayer - will eventually dry up.

This is the endgame for Pakistan's strongman, who surely has begun to realize he is fighting for his very survival. With Washington now applying pressure publicly, Musharraf must be starting to realize that his time to go has arrived.

By declaring a state of emergency Musharraf has in fact placed the final nail in his own coffin.