At this point the election is very likely to coincide with the Annapolis Middle East peace conference, if it ever kicks off, given that at the time of this writing, invitations from the conference host, the United States, have still not gone out.

In truth, both events are unrelated; the first, the election of the Lebanese president is dependent upon the various Lebanese political parties getting their act together and agreeing on a single candidate. But there is an outside factor to be considered, the degree of intervention into Lebanese politics coming from Damascus and Tehran. Both Syria and Iran have considerable influence over the Lebanese Shiite movement, Hezbollah.

The second event, the Annapolis Middle East peace conference, is dependent upon the Palestinians and the Israelis getting their act together and agreeing on what everybody – including themselves – knows they will have to agree to, if there is ever to be a just and lasting peace in the region.

The three major stumbling blocks around which there is no way:

1. The final borders will have to be agreed upon in a way to grant the Palestinians a viable home in the West Bank and Gaza. (Footnote: make a note of Gaza for the moment.)

2. The issue of refugees: Some of them will have to be admitted into the future Palestinian state while those originally from homes in what is now Israel will have to be compensated in one way or another.

3. The status of Jerusalem will have to be addressed. Both Palestinians and Israelis will have to recognize that Jerusalem can be the capital of two states. (See Gershon Baskin's excellent op-ed titled "The test of leadership," in today's Middle East Times.)

The common denominator in both events – the presidential elections in Lebanon and the Middle East peace conference in Annapolis – appears to be Damascus and Tehran and their ability to torpedo any agreements or create a state of uncertainty in Lebanon, if they so choose to do.

However, to implement any agreements reached in Annapolis depends on how much intervention comes from Damascus and Tehran.

We mentioned the influence Syria and Iran have over Hezbollah and other affiliated parties in Lebanon. And the mention of Gaza as a footnote; that part needs to be explained. As in Lebanon with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran have the power to influence Hamas, the Islamist Palestinian movement, now in full control of the Gaza Strip.

Gaza is an important part of the Palestinian territories, without which, there can be no Palestinian state.

It may still be a coincidence that trouble could erupt around the time of the Lebanese elections just as the Annapolis conference kicks off. Then again, it's no coincidence. It may be a bitter pill to swallow, but to give itself a better chance of success in Annapolis the Bush administration should reserve a seat for Syria and one for Iran. Who knows what may come from talking to one's enemies?