There was no thrill of victory nor sting of defeat at party headquarters as votes were counted in this week's general election in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).

Early results accurately predicted massive gains for the opposition Turkish Republican Party and flag-waving republicans drove around Nicosia to celebrate. But they fell silent when it became clear the opposition was tied in a dead heat with the ruling coalition.

When the last ballots had been tallied, the Republicans and their allies in the Peace and Democracy Movement had the majority of votes, but under an electoral system of proportional representation this gives them exactly 25 of the 50 seat parliament. The National Unity and Democrat parties, allies in the previous government, have the other 25. Three smaller parties failed to pass a 5 percent threshold and were wiped out.

If party deal makers cannot horse trade a way out of this impasse, a second round of elections will be held in two months. But the implications of the tied result in the breakaway republic has consequences for the whole of Cyprus and affects Turkey's hopes of joining the European Union.

This week's election, the fifth since the Turkish-Cypriots declared their state in 1983, was fought as a referendum on the possibility of reuniting with the Greek-Cypriots in the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus.

Earlier this year, Turkish-Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash flatly refused to negotiate an end to the impasse which has split Cyprus since 1974 based on a plan presented by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Acceptance of the Annan plan implies a promise of EU membership when the Greek Cypriots join on May 1, 2004. Denktash calls acceptance of the plan "a death wish."

The Turkish Republican Party, despite it's name, wants a compromise with the Greek-Cypriots and is firmly pro-Europe. Party leaders say they're fed up with the international isolation and economic stagnation of the last 30 years. They accept the Annan plan is not ideal, but it's the only solution on offer and they hope to modify some elements.

The ruling National Unity Party were architects of the declaration of statehood; a situation recognized only by Turkey. The nationalists say negotiations can only restart after the TRNC has been fully recognized as an equal partner to the Republic of Cyprus. They oppose negotiating EU membership without Turkey and do not rule out the possibility of reintegrating with the Turkish mainland. Their commitment to the status quo has been summed up by a statement from Denktash that, "no solution is a solution."

The election was about hopes and fears. Invigorated by a summer of demonstrations against Denktash, the opposition hoped to translate popular discontent to success at the polls. After casting his own vote, Peace and Democracy leader Mustafa Akinci said, "We believe the time for a change has come, the people who came down to the streets to demonstrate will not be going back to their balconies. The status quo is not sustainable."

The ruling coalition played on the fears of many Turkish Cypriots that reintegration with the Greek community will be a disaster. "Under the Annan plan we Turks will just become cheap labour for the Greeks on the island," said Ergun Vehbi who failed to get elected as a Democrat Party candidate.

Meriam, a grandmother waiting to vote has worse fears. "You want us to try to coexist in a single state?" She asked. "It would be just like the Israelis and the Palestinians fighting over Jerusalem."

Information leaked from the smoke-filled rooms where political deals were being made indicated the following, likely tiebreaker. A coalition will emerge joining the Turkish Republican Party and the Democrat Party led by Denktash's son Serdar. The Democrats, although part of the outgoing government, accept elements of the Annan plan but want to rewrite clauses concerning security guarantees.

Together this coalition has 26 seats, still not enough to pass legislation as the government loses one seat by appointing a speaker, but this alliance would be supported by the Peace and Democracy Movement from the opposition benches.

Serdar Denktash hopes to be prime minister but to get the job he will have to compromise on his father's role as negotiator at future talks. Instead of working alone, Rauf Denktash will lead a multiparty negotiating team.

Working behind the scenes, the Turkish government will ultimately play the decisive role in the formation of the new government and the future of the TRNC. Turkey is adjusting national policies and balancing it's budget in the hope of receiving a starting date for its own EU accession. After May 2004 the Greek Cypriots will be one of 10 new members deciding that date. It is unlikely that Ankara will let half the TRNC electorate, 70,000 people, stand the way of it joining the world's largest trading group.