Tayyip Erdogan was tipped by the polls to replace Bulent Ecevit as prime minister until Turkey's supreme judiciary banned him and three other opposition candidates from all political posts because of their records of sedition, a move which runs contrary to recent EU-linked reforms.

A fortnight previously, new laws inspired by Turkey's wishes to join the EU allowed Erdogan to successfully appeal against his sedition charge and have his record wiped clean.

Turkey is suffering its worst economic recession in 60 years. Were it not for an IMF emergence loan of $3 billion and the promise of a further $12 billion the country would be bankrupt – a loan linked to economic, rather than political, reforms.

Entrance to the EU and revival of the economy are central issues in Turkish's November election, but it may be the government's fear of political liberals as much as conservatives that are delaying the possibility of EU accession.

To most Turks the EU and its democratic ideals sound appealing – they mean money, investment, more global influence and increased human rights.

But while the governing and business classes tout democratic intentions, the recent banning order on Erdogan and two other liberals suggests a truly free vote in Turkey may have brought a socialist Islamic-based government to power – something obviously neither the liberal middle-class Turk, the judiciary or the army want or will allow.

As the popular mayor of Istanbul in 1994, Erdogan's relentless cleaning up of the city won him much praise, even among his critics. After the severe earthquake in 1999 his party provided emergency aid 50 hours before the government did.

The origins for Erdogan's focus for a welfare state have proven controversial, and have been denounced by critics as overtly Islamist – accusations which Erdogan denies.

Erdogan is not one for masking his religious convictions, however. In 1998, after he read a poem with religious undertones, he was sentenced to ten months in prison for Islamist sedition.

Turkey is a secular democracy in an Islamic nation, with the army – thanks to Kamal Ataturk - the guarantors of state stability. Ataturk insured that should the government move outside of secularism, it can be legally replaced by the military in what would effectively be an automatic coup.

Since 1960 Turkey's government has ritually been ousted in this way every decade, most recently in 1997 when then then-prime minister Necmettin Erbakan of the Welfare Party, a previous Islamic-based party, was found guilty of Islamic sedition. The Welfare Party was dissolved and he was banned from politics for five years.

Before the final Erdogan verdict, Ecevit warned that the army might intervene again should Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (the AK) win the election.

Though sedition specifically means inspiring revolt, the official court declaration issued in a speedy ten days was dramatically extended to Erbakan as well as Murat Bozlak, leader of the Hadep (the Kurdish party) and Akin Birdal, the head of Turkey's Human Rights Association.

The moves were slammed by the nation's press.

"The nation has been robbed from the right to vote for Erdogan, Erbakan, Bozlak or Birdal. Is this how a democracy should function?" commented the Turkish Daily News on September 21.

"The ban is on the nation. This situation has to change dramatically if we are to have any chance of even arguing that we are entitled for a place in the EU."