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Palestinian militants show disarray
By Mona Eltahawy
Published: November 13, 1998
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Disarray seems to have seeped through the ranks of Palestinian militant groups that have staged three attacks against Israelis in a bid to scuttle a new peace deal, Israeli and Palestinian analysts have said.

Unlike previous attacks that killed scores of people and sent shock waves through Israel, the more recent strikes caused far fewer casualties and pointed to amateur preparation and desperate implementation, the analysts said.

They said several senior militant leaders had disappeared from the scene, either through mysterious deaths or were behind bars in Palestinian jails, taking with them the coordination and expertise that their groups once had.

"It seems to me that Islamic groups suffer from a lack of professional suicide bombers. What we saw was a rush to implement terrorist attacks to block the way of implementation of the Wye River Memorandum," said Menachem Klein, an Israeli specialist in militant groups.

Since the US-Middle East summit at Wye River, Maryland, an Israeli soldier and three Palestinian bombers have been killed in three attacks - two claimed by the military wing of Hamas and one by Islamic jihad ; last year, during a deadlock in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, six suicide bombers killed 23 people in three attacks.

In the latest attack, smoke billowing from a car filled with explosives gave Israeli police time to warn passersby to seek cover.

"The attack in Jerusalem on 6 November was a failure, not due to a miracle of God, but because the bombers weren't professional," Klein said about the blast that killed the two militants and wounded 21 Israelis.

The deadly havoc that coordinated attacks can wreak was apparent at the same market in September 1997, when two suicide bombers strapped with explosives struck simultaneously at two points, killing 15 people and wounding more than 170.

"Look at the psychological state of Islamic movements. They're losing leaders, they're being killed and their people are being detained. They're under the eye of the [Palestinian] Authority. All this has created a state of internal disarray," said Ziad Abu Amr, a Palestinian expert on militant groups.

"They lack adequate plans, logistical support and the means to carry out successful and spectacular attacks," Abu Amr continued.

Hamas lost two senior activists this year in mysterious circumstances.

"When military leaders die, those next in line have limited experience and this shows in the quality and caliber of operations... This is a time of crisis for Hamas," Abu Amr said.

Even militant leaders acknowledge times have changed. Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Hamas founder and spiritual leader, said in October that security cooperation between the Palestinian Authority, Israel and the United States had hindered attacks by the group.

"There is no doubt the military wing is facing many difficulties," Yassin said.

Four weeks later, Arafat put Yassin under house arrest and ordered the detention of dozens of Islamists after an attack, which narrowly missed a busload of Jewish settler schoolchildren, was claimed by the military wing of Hamas.

Israel contends the Palestinian Authority has not done enough to fulfill obligations under the new deal to crack down on militants and has suspended ratification of the interim accord until the moment that Arafat proves he is taking stronger action.

Abu Amr said continued pressure on militants could create more radical, splinter groups that followed their own cues.

"Extreme measures and hardships may push the movement to decentralize and have cells here and there that act on their own to protect themselves. When you're pushed too far, it's likely," Abu Amr said.

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